[quantified]

The odds improve. What you want is the economic odds, ie was your exit worth it. If you are earning 50% less for having joined that early and stayed that long, did the payout for those 34.5% exceed 100% of your annual cash pay x 1.655? You need equity to function as a make-up bonus for the pay you forwent to work at the company, that's the 100%. The economic odds require enough payout per hit that the misses that give you zero are exceeded as well. Since 65.5% of the startups from top-tiers don't pay, you need to further bonus up by that amount to make up for the 1/3 odds to took.

The criteria used in the article are poor as well. Exited for more than invested is not useful. Investors get preferences, including exploding preferences. So "exited with a payout to the option-holding employees" really should be the test.