[threeseed]

> China is not similarly constrained and so could end up outcompeting the U.S.

With what technology ?

US has long term export controls on China and as they have demonstrated with Russia recently once you have secondary sanctions in place everyone falls into line. So it's pretty likely they will be effective.

[throwaway2990]

The export controls simply don’t work. Those chips still make their way into China. All those export controls do is slow it down a bit.

But China can outfit itself with more hardware even if it’s not as fast as the latest iteration and still speed past the U.S. while the U.S. and the EU argue about AI being racist or not.

[threeseed]

> Those chips still make their way into China

Not at the scale you need to build a world-class AI.

Let me know when Huawei is able to place an order for 300,000 GPUs.

[bugglebeetle]

Okay:

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-Spotlight/How-Chin...

[viksit]

China actually has very advanced technology in literally every area of the sciences now. They just don’t bother talking about it in english

I recommend you follow some of the specialist chinese AI substacks to see what’s happening over there.

Esp around chip building

[sdsd]

>I recommend you follow some of the specialist chinese AI substacks to see what’s happening over there.

Do you recommend any in particular? I'm not familiar enough with the Chinese AI scene to know who to check out

[threeseed]

Not really buying the idea that China secretly has equivalents for Nvidia, ASML, TSMC etc.

SIMC right now relies entirely on existing US/EU hardware for their chip building.

New versions of which are no longer available to them.

[bugglebeetle]

I’m guessing you don’t read many machine learning papers. Chinese research in AI coming out of their top institutions (e.g. Tsinghua University, Shanghai AI Lab), is pretty much on par with state of the art in U.S. labs.