[Lerc]

>What makes you believe that progress is linear, or at least a line forever going up?

I assume neither of those things. I have however read a lot of the papers published since GPT-4 was trained. There have been a lot of advances since then, so much so that simply saying "a lot" seems to be a massive understatement.

I think it is a reasonable assumption that at least a portion of those advancements would be able to build upon the existing technology of GPT-4 to produce something greater.

I am not assuming discoveries yet to be made. I am considering existing discoveries that have not yet made it into the top level of production.