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by pfdietz 845 days ago
Economics is an inherent part of practicality. Being able to provide power to the grid, but not economically, is not any better than not being able to provide power to the grid at all.

Helion and Zap have larger physics barriers, that's true. But the goal isn't to produce a pyrrhic victory and a power plant that "works" but can't compete. The goal is competitive energy out. I contend Helion and Zap are both more likely to reach that actual practical goal than DEMO.

1 comments

Agreed in principle. We clearly have different priors, but I think we agree on the general idea.

Basically, ITER/DEMO has a low chance of being economical even if it works physically. Helion and Zap have a higher chance of being economical if their approach works. I think we both agree on these points.

Where we differ is that I don't believe it's plausible that Helion or Zap's approach will work at all. But this is just a belief ultimately, I'm not basing it on any objective facts or anything like that.

On what do you base your feeling about Helion and Zap? Having examined the concepts in some detail, I have come to the opposite conclusion. Helion in particular has a combination of very clever ideas.
Where I think Helion approach is missing something big is Helion attempts to "force" the plasma with magnets, contrast to Safire where the plasma forms self-containing magnetic fields. Plasma, like fire, which is a "cold plasma" in a way, is something found in nature. Leveraging plasma that has self-containing magnetic fields is "going with nature" rather than trying to run against it.

Suppose one were trying to take advantage of heat provided by fire, they would want to exploit how fire naturally behaves to get the benefit, rather than attempt to force fire to behave a certain way to get the benefit.

Safire is pure pseudoscience. Helion is not.

And the only naturally occurring plasma hot enough for fusion is in the cores of stars, where gravity, not magnetic fields, keep it contained.

Safire has had, for about eight years now, a working plasma fusion reactor that stays lit for hours on end. Helion does not.

>> the only naturally occurring plasma hot enough for fusion is in the cores of stars

Plasma that is artificially created is still plasma, not unlike how fire that is artificially created is still fire.

That plasma can be manipulated magnetically does not change. The Safire plasma has self-containing magnetic fields. Helion's plasma does not have this.

They have a working plasma, yes, something smart children can do with a bit of tinkering. They do not, in any way shape or form, a self-sustaining fusion-producing plasma.

They are basically a cold fusion scam, except they are using a hotter plasma than the original cold fusion scammers. But, per their own claims (25,000 °C), nowhere near the temperatures required for fusion (million+ kelvin). They also claim that they are reproducing the conditions of the sun's atmosphere, which is again equivalent to admitting that they can't actually produce fusion power, since fusion doesn't happen in the sun's atmosphere.

Their website contains other bizarre claims, like claiming that they "use electricity to change the nuclei of atoms" and that they "transmute tungsten and iron into 17 benign stable daughter elements". They talk about cold fusion as if it exists as well.

These people either have no idea what they're talking about, or are active scammers. There is 0 chance they are anything else. Their device might heat plasma up to 25k C, but it does nothing else.

> working plasma fusion reactor

What's most remarkable about this is that you've allowed yourself to be taken in by it. Show even the slightest level of skepticism, please.