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by mckn1ght 844 days ago
Labor cost pretty much always increases while the cost of research technology decreases once it encounters economies of scale.

A car today at the admittedly high cost estimate of $1M will “pay itself off” versus your labor estimate in less than 8 years. Humans don’t get paid off and then work for free afterwards.
1 comments
aetherson 843 days ago
A taxi doesn't have a lifespan of 8 years, and note that while I don't think that a Waymo car costs anything like $1M, it's also not actually the case that you pay taxi drivers $140k per year.

I see very little to suggest that a Waymo car costs less all-in over the course of about two years than a Prius and an Uber driver does, and that's the much more relevant comparison.

Nothing to say that this couldn't change in the future. But that's my guess for the status quo.

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fragmede 843 days ago
Take $40k* for TCO for a Prius for 5 years, plus $140k for the driver to get to $190k. Using $140k because that matches the availability of software that doesn't need sleep.

$190k - $80k for a jaguar ipace leaves $110k per vehicle for Waymo to work with, multiplied by the size of their fleet. How much do we want to figure a pile of sensors, computer hardware, and custom housings to cost? Minus insurance and electricity, which I don't know how much to figure and the answer is yeah I don't know. $110k over 2 years doesn't seem like that much, but multiplied across a sizable fleet it adds up. I'm sure they're scaling up as fast as they can.

* https://www.edmunds.com/toyota/prius/2022/cost-to-own/

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mckn1ght 843 days ago
> about two years … that's the much more relevant comparison

why is 2 years the relevant timeframe?

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