[dh2022]

I can’t wait to see what happens in Russia post-Putin. I mean, the guy is 71 years old. Maybe he will hang on for another 10-15 years. I can’t wait to see what happens then. As far as I can tell none of his biological offspring is being pushed as next leader.

[maratc]

I am sorry to be pessimistic, but once Putin is gone, someone else is going to take his place. There won't be much difference between Putin and the other guy, and that (small) difference may be for the better or it may be for the worse.

Putin is not in that place because he's somehow an extremely talented (or extremely lucky) person. Putin is there because that's what most of the Russian elite wants. Once he's gone, the Russian elite will put there somebody else who will fit them the most. It would not be reasonable to expect any drastic difference given the unchanging circumstances.

The thought that Putin is holding a whole country hostage to his freakish ideas is a very depressing one, but when you think of it it's actually an optimistic one because it implies that a positive change could be coming. But in my view, the reality is even more depressing. And in my view, the reality is that he has both the elites' support and the popular support.

A good proxy for the Russian situation would be China. They have changed the guy a couple of times in the last 30 years but the policy stayed mostly the same. The only things that can bring a change are either a coup (not likely in Russia) or a black horse like Gorbachev.

[3pm]

I agree. From the Systems Thinking, the best case scenario is that a new leader will start changing the rules of the game (internal incentives, punishments and constraints). Only then, and slowly, over decades things may start improving. It is just hard to imagine this outside of couple urban centers.

Right now majority of Russians still think they are a temporarily embarrassed great empire. And the goal is to return to the past glory. And the way to do it is by force, because only might is right.

[3pm]

How much does he matter you think? After reading the article, did you get the impression that all the colorful characters will suddenly change their ways after Putin dies? It seems the whole thing is very very loosely organized. More Camorra than Cosa Nostra. They kinda off like reverse James Bonds, but not exactly.

[dh2022]

Well, a power struggle would be quite the thing to watch. At least for me. Kinda like what happened when Stalin died. (My personal forecast excludes return to democracy; it includes something similar to what happened after Stalin died).

[3pm]

Yes, I think the chance to soft-land USSR into a democracy was missed by the West in the 90s. I don't see how the brainwashed population and their globe trotting elite will change their views now. It did not have to be this way.

[dh2022]

I thought the same way back in 90s. I also thought that a western-aligned Russia would have helped counter act some of China's ambitions. (I was quite puzzled by my college economics professor when he kept saying that increasing trade with China will make China more like the West) Instead of that, the West more or less nudged Russia in China's arms....It did not have to be this way....