The DARPA grand challenge that represented the thought that this was even possibly only happened in 2004 (29 years ago). I heard they even have autonomous taxis in SF now, which was more progress than I would have predicted 10 years ago.
10 years ago was when Siri and the other voice assistants came out right? I see a huge amount of progress between then and now, but these LLMs sort of snuck up on us in the last two years. I don’t think we are hitting an AI winter anytime soon.
Sure, but not all programming is building webapps either. There are many high stakes environments, with real consequences.
Additionally as the ball of mud grows, making slight but subtle changes to the system will get subsequently harder and harder to describe to the point where the tradeoff from using english is higher than flipping some code (imo).
But we still need to have humans check or define specs for the program.
If even human have problems when receiving specs from management, it'll be harder for them to instruct AI, at least for now. Unless there's some microchip transplants or brain reading interfaces that can translate those.
The last 20% is really hard