[causal]

Microsoft's own research basically established this[0], finding that early versions of GPT-4 were more competent prior to safety tuning (perhaps just because later versions refused to perform some of the same tasks).

[0] https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/publication/sparks-...

[datameta]

In my somewhat uninformed opinion but based on experience, the decrease in model quality is inversely proportional to the explosion in userbase.

[singleshot_]

I might extend that a bit:

There is a direct relationship between the number of users who are allowed to use an AI and the degree to which it has been nerfed.

I see no reason to suspect this will reverse, and every reason to start thinking of this as a natural law named after me.

[datameta]

I suppose it will be (is?) some sort of overall climbing but locally sawtooth pattern with each generational jump.

I think the limitation is infra. Network, compute, storage - in that order perhaps.