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by LabMechanic
846 days ago
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Nassim Taleb also suggests to not predict the future from past events.
Why? Because we are not almighty and all-knowing, but we seem to collectively pretend that we are. Some people (Munger? Buffet?) believe The Coca-Cola Company will continue to exist, because it existed for that long (Lindy effect), so it must continue to exist.
Why “must”? The problem is right here, you cannot reliably predict the future. Who knows what will happen by 2060? Therefore, things like Kondratiev waves might be a new form of modern coffee cup reading. |
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