[rayiner]

Yes, that’s why OP cited the Congressional popular vote. What’s happening is that both parties gerrymander, so it largely cancels out. For example in Maryland, democrats won 65% of the 2022 Congressional popular vote, but hold 87.5% of the House seats. The 450,000 or so excess Republican votes—votes for republicans which didn’t contribute to a Republican house seat—cancels out some excess Democratic votes in Montana or Wyoming.

[chabes]

Indeed, but there are other factors at play, in regards to the influence of gerrymandering on voting in general

[rayiner]

You can speculate about such factors, but the House popular vote tends to line up pretty well with opinion polling of the "generic Congressional ballot"--which is a nationwide measure that isn't affected by gerrymandering. For example, republicans were leading by up to 10 points in polling in 2010 before they ultimately won by 7 points: https://news.gallup.com/poll/142718/gop-unprecedented-lead-g....