[endisneigh]

I don’t really have any horse in the race but the experiments I’ve seen are hardly universal nor sufficiently guaranteed. It’s basically just a one time payment spread over some period, so it’s not surprising people would use money they know won’t be around forever for essentials.

On the other hand it would be nice to know what happened with all of the Covid checks since that also was given to many, but again hardly universal.

I think the main criticism against UBI is inflation and I haven’t seen any reasonable argument to why it wouldn’t happen.

[Workaccount2]

Strictly economic theoretical speaking, inflation wouldn't happen if the money isn't "new" money, but instead is fully reallocated money.

A likely picture would be less money going into assets (where wealthy people money tends to end up) and more money going into consumables (where poor people money tends to end up). However the money pile should stay the same all else being equal.

[dagw]

Inflation is generally defined by the price increase of a basket of goods. If you relocate money from things outside that basket to things inside that basket then inflation can increase without the money pile getting bigger.

[Workaccount2]

Inflation is gauged by a basket of goods, not defined by it.

At heart, inflation is a mismatch between the real value of the economy and the currency placeholder used to represent that. This is why governments can (and need to) keep printing money as the economy grows.

[n2d4]

That's false, "strictly economic theoretical speaking" inflation is a function of spending and savings (among others). If you take savings and use it to increase spendings, that causes demand-pull inflation.

[Workaccount2]

Very few wealthy people keep their wealth in savings. Maybe now with interest rates up it is higher, but any prudent wealth advisor will steer most of that money pile back into the economy.

[n2d4]

"Savings and investments" counts as one category here.

[bluecalm]

Money supply has little to do with inflation. You can print like crazy and have about 0 inflation (a decade before Covid) or you can raise rates and have huge inflation. It's because inflation happens when supply of goods is limited. Covid messed up the supply chain -> inflation happened.

Some printing may even lower prices because it allows production at scale to happen.

If you just print and just helicopter money you will have some inflation but this doesn't happen at scale significant enough to matter in any civilized country.

[Workaccount2]

>(a decade before Covid)

You are aware that the increase in money supply from 2020 to 2022 is about the same as the increase from 2010 to 2020, despite ~45% lower GDP growth?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS

[paulmd]

that’s actually OP’s point, which you missed - CPI change is different from money supply change. They are related and often move together but CPI can technically go up even if money supply goes down, if the demand for money increases.

[tivert]

> Strictly economic theoretical speaking, inflation wouldn't happen if the money isn't "new" money, but instead is fully reallocated money.

Wouldn't that be in aggregate? So maybe some inflation for food and deflation for luxury yachts.

[Workaccount2]

There probably would be while the market adjusts to the new demand levels and reallocates resources accordingly. But it would level itself out.

[BiteCode_dev]

Money from the state does come from the money printer these days thought.

[gumby]

“Can”, not “does”. Don’t be disingenuous.

[JoeAltmaier]

UBI experiments have been going on for decades. Pensions, annuities, trust funds, retirement savings. People spend it on living expenses. And a few amenities if there's anything left over.

Let's not overthink this. We don't need to pretend it's a mystery how UBI would play out. It's been commonplace for a century.