[johnsimer]

but also skin in the game and supply/demand

Should be much more accurate than a simple poll, because people with the belief that the odds are undervalued will put money in the game to hopefully profit off their belief

It's more like the Efficient Market Hypothesis

[samatman]

There's no skin in the game with Metaculus, it's a prediction aggregator, not a prediction market. Nothing is at stake.

This is why you see a somewhat absurd skew on AI doom/safety questions, using Metaculus is a hobby of the cult^H^H^H^H movement, and no one's swooping in to steal their money because there isn't any.

[gbear605]

It’s somewhat more complex than that because Metaculus weights its aggregates by how accurate predictors have been in the past. Definitely not perfect though, and the efficient market hypothesis isn’t relevant at all.