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by jeffdn
849 days ago
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I’d start by saying that the Russians aren’t winning the war, it is in a period of stalemate, like 1915 or 1916. Accepting tens of thousands of casualties for incremental movement of a front line, over time periods that allow the side withdrawing to first build new fortifications to fall back on, is not a recipe for success. The Russians are digging deep into Soviet-era stockpiles, rolling out tanks built in the ‘50s and ‘60s (T-55 and T-62, respectively). Each of these is much less well equipped to face Western-style military hardware than more modern variants. Russia’s ability to replenish its stockpiles is at even more a disadvantage than the West, and meanwhile Ukraine has been tooling up to build shells of their own. The U.S. has (had?) colossal stockpiles of shells and ammunition. There is a false equivalence between the ability to supply the Ukrainians at a rate of 10,000+ shells a day for years on end and the ability of the United States to engage in a major conflict. The Russians are also having trouble keeping their artillery pieces adequately supplied. The calculus is about the acceptable rate of drawdown of stockpiles in relation to the increase in the likelihood of a near-peer conflict arising due to the support given by the very drawdown of those stockpiles. If we give everything we have to Ukraine, and they lose, for whatever reason, then we have disadvantaged ourselves. However, any major conflict between the United States and a near-peer adversary wouldn’t be so heavily reliant on artillery as this current war is — the U.S. has spent decades building an Air Force that can dominate the battle space in ways that artillery alone cannot match. As Ukraine is set to receive several squadrons worth of F-16s this year, I believe we will see things change. Planes can interdict resupply and troop movements in ways that are beyond the capability of artillery. SEAD aircraft can target and destroy SAM radars to allow large strike packages to accurately blow bridges and rail lines with a much greater radius and accuracy than any other conventional munition. It is very cynical realpolitik, but Russia’s armed forces have been gutted with this approach. |
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a growing feeling of this being the conflict's main objective makes me shiver of what comes next