| [footnote] If this part of the explanation is bugging you, consider these related problems: Problem 1. There are two opaque, externally identical bags, each containing 2 marbles. One bag contains 2 black marbles. The other bag contains 1 black marble and 1 white marble. You choose a bag and draw a marble from it, without looking inside. The marble is black. What should you conclude are the odds that the remaining marble in the chosen bag is black? Answer: .elbram kcalb dnoces a dnif ot ylekil sdriht-owt era ew oS .gab etihw-dna-kcalb eht morf si eno ylno dna ,gab kcalb-lla eht morf era elbram kcalb a werd ew hcihw ni soiranecs elbissop eht fo owT Problem 2. There are three opaque, externally identical bags. One bag contains 2 black marbles. The other two bags each contain 1 black marble and 1 white marble. Again you choose a bag and draw a marble from it, without looking inside. The marble is black. What should you conclude are the odds that the remaining marble in your chosen bag is black? Answer: .tnecrep ytfif era elbram kcalb dnoces a gniward fo sddo ruO .gab kcalb-lla eht nesohc gnivah fo sddo ytfif-ytfif ta won era ew oS .sgab etihw-dna-kcalb tnereffid owt eht morf era owt dna ,gab kcalb-lla eht morf era elbram kcalb a werd ew hcihw ni soiranecs elbissop eht fo owT You can connect Problem 2 to our random door opening and a goat being revealed, in the Monty Fall (with an F) problem. |