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by jncfhnb
850 days ago
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Suppose Car is C. The only possible options are (equally likely) You choose A and get shown B
You choose B and get shown A
You choose C and get shown A
You choose C and get shown B 4 options. You lose 50% of the time. The 2 options where you would normally get the 2/3 odds are explicitly ignored when you are told Monty chosen randomly and randomly got a goat. You choose A and get shown C or you choose B and get shown C are forbidden. 50/50 probability on the dot. If Monty chooses with intention then the options where you choose goat and are shown goat double in probability so you get back to 2/3 |
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