I'm sorry what now? Stop second guessing the puzzle which is clearly stated.
I'm so, so done with this now that I am actually going to render inoperable my only HN account so I cannot possibly come back to this, or any other thread.
It is NOT STATED in THIS VERSION OF THE PROMPT that monte will always open a door and that it will always be a goat door.
It is simply stated that on one play of the game, Monte CHOSE to open a door and it was a goat. If this is truly all you know, you have learned nothing.
It is only useful information if monte explicitly opens a goat door for you. If he opens a door at random and gets goat your information gain goes away even if it’s the same door!
I’ve literally mapped it out for you else where. There’s only 4 outcomes. You can check yourself.
I'm so, so done with this now that I am actually going to render inoperable my only HN account so I cannot possibly come back to this, or any other thread.