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by c2occnw 844 days ago
That interpretation requires believing that the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, would sometimes open the door revealing the automobile and ask the contestant if they want to switch to that door. It doesn't really make sense, so that should tip off readers that they've misunderstood the show format.

Marilyn even made this explicit in her answer, writing that the host "knows what's behind the doors and will always avoid the one with the prize" [0]. So readers were arguing her answer was wrong even given this understanding of how the show works.

[0] https://www.newspapers.com/article/the-missoulian-the-monty-...

1 comments

> That interpretation requires believing that the host, who knows what’s behind the doors

The host has to always open the door, too. Else-- if your strategy is always to switch when shown a goat, the host can choose to only show you a goat if you have already picked the car (which would cause you to lose 100%). Or various mixed strategies.

This is one of those problems that is hard to grasp at baseline, but a little harder to grasp because the situation isn't fully specified. As a result it tends to create a lot of controversy, like the one about an airplane on a treadmill.