[bemusedthrow75]

You don't need to know whether he does or does not do that all the time.

Because he did it this time?

Amazed this nitpicking is still going on; it's illustrative.

[paulcole]

I once had somebody claim the answer was wrong because we weren't sure if the contestant wanted the car or the goat.

This puzzle is like a shibboleth for nitpickers.

[lelanthran]

> This puzzle is like a shibboleth for nitpickers

More like a shibboleth for sore losers.

Just look at this thread, filled with people who got the wrong answer and want to prove that either the smartest person in the world was wrong or that the question is ambiguous.

[dekhn]

In many developing countries if you ask somebody whether they want a flush toilet or a mobile phone, most people pick the mobile phone.

[paulcole]

Do you think that given the context of the puzzle – about a US game show, printed in a US paper that the question is being asked in many developing countries?

Or are you looking to find fault with something for the sake of finding fault?

[dekhn]

No, I'm making the pooint that in many parts of the world, a goat is more valuable than a car because of the lack of car infrastructure.

[paulcole]

Incredible point. Thank you for your service.

The shibboleth for nitpickers title is locked up.

[jncfhnb]

If he only opens a door when you picked the car, then you will lose 100% of the time by switching when he shows a goat.

I instead love when people get uppity about others being wrong about Monty hall while still being wrong about Monty hall!

[bemusedthrow75]

It doesn't matter what he only does, or always does.

It matters what he did in the problem as it is described. Because that is what you're solving.

[jncfhnb]

The problem as described does not specify his behavior. Only what happened. If all you know is that he opened a goat door you have learned nothing.

It could be that he always opens a goat door meaning you should switch.

It could be that he only opens a goat door if you picked the car and you should not.

It could be he only opens a goat door if you picked a goat and you should.

Probability cannot determine which of these is any more likely than the other. You have learned nothing.

[bemusedthrow75]

"If all you know is that he opened a goat door you have learned nothing."

This is precisely where you are wrong.

[jncfhnb]

Ok let’s play!

We play this game 1000 times.

33% of the time you pick the car and I show you a goat. You switch and lose 100% of the time.

66% of the time you pick a goat and I don’t show you a goat. Assuming you don’t switch because you believe this means you have an equal odd on your current door, you lose 100% of the time.

Congrats. You have lost every single round.

[bemusedthrow75]

You've restated the problem (incorrectly) -- changed it.

There's still a goat you could show me. And it is a fact that you show me a goat. Nowhere in the problem does it suggest there is a chance you show me a goat.

I do honestly admire your dogged commitment, and I think the way you are committed shows up an important point about the article and the history of the problem.

Which is that one can quite clearly fairly argue the point, as you are doing, without resorting to misogynistic or patronising rudeness as so many did at the time!

But you're still wrong. :-)

And I'm going to leave it here.