| Imagine you are developing a thing like Chat-GTP or whatever Google calls Bard this week. You see it is growing quickly. You could productionize now, or invest a bit longer and make it 2x better. An independent problem is that your model is really powerful, but left to it's own devices it spouts the worst of 4chan right alongside high quality reddit comments. When do you ship? You have 2 criteria: After you yoke it to not be a Nazi and once returns on quality investment start to fall. Both Google and OpenAi hit the point where returns started to diminish. It turns out the hard part was yokeing it. OpenAi, being more agile, throws massive pools of borderline slave labor at the problem while Google is still ramping up their "let's just throw supervised training at the problem" solution. These products were released past the inflection point of the sigmoid. The marketing is strong to re-create the old moore-law hype to re-loosen investors wallets, but the return quality investment is already diminishing. The primary way it is changing is in finding composition of tools and new use cases. Clean the marketing scales from your eyes and feel welcome to the plateau. |