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by 4bpp
844 days ago
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I think there is a simple solution to the thought experiment in the beginning, ignoring the paragraphs upon paragraphs of EY liking the sound of his own voice: The information content of each experiment consists of more than just the stated number of patients tested and success rate. In particular, each experiment report I notice is strong evidence that someone actually used humanity's limited resources to perform that experiment, and slightly less strong evidence that they actually followed the stated procedure. Therefore, the completion of the "stop when I have a high enough success rate" experiment should cause me to update in favour of people with the means to actually running such an experiment, and hence make it more likely that at this very moment there are other research groups out there that are like 1000 patients in and have not yet gotten their 60% success rate. |
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