[digging]

> Thirty years later, Cisco still exists but absolutely nobody is excited about them.

What is the lesson you take from this, though?

To me, the lesson is that "Predicting the future is hard." No matter how well you're doing, you still need to make some sort of prediction of the future to stay on top.

If you get $2 billion and want to stay a billionaire, you can bury it underground and predict that inflation will be minimal, or you can invest it and predict that investments will be profitable. Either prediction could be wrong. (But they're not equally likely.)

In that same vein, even though Cisco was printing money, the world changed. The world will always change. It's not necessarily a failure that they couldn't predict and invent the next money printer.

[nazka]

For Nvidia to become like Cisco we need 2 things. 1. AI will become easy at all level with no big revolution and 2. Nvidia will not diversify and invest in the next big thing. I am not sure of 1 but certainly not 2. Maybe if the next big thing has nothing to do with computer hardware or AI.

[2sk21]

My point is that while Cisco was an early winner, Amazon and Google started growing a few years later and were much larger winners in the end. I think there is a possibility that history may repeat with Nvidia -but I have no idea what new companies are going to rise in the AI era.