[cityofdelusion]

Not based on the fundamentals. Tesla maintains a high profit margin and doesn’t carry immense debt loads like the traditional manufacturers. Additionally Tesla has some degree of self-driving success priced in. Traditional auto also returns most profit as dividends and the stocks do not grow.

[Aromasin]

They still sit at roughly 50x PE Ratio though. You'd have to expect such high growth (way more than even they forecast) to make sense of buying into that if you're not reliant on making money on hype and brand awareness, which is brutally fickle.

[loceng]

Is there a reason why you didn't include their current battery production operations and future plans in this regard, along with solar, along with the TeslaBot that once far enough along will basically create a feedback loop that will make practically everything we currently do "free" to do?

The TeslaBot with even a dumb level of "AI" for learning and mimicking actions the Bot is shown to perform and can mimic based on its non-meat stick appendages - whole systems and funnels from farming to getting a cooked meal on the dinner table could be (eventually) fully automated with little to no human oversight, where the only initial inputs are raw-natural resources; the problem then that 100% of humanity needs to focus on is then heavy oversight and real-time in-person witnessing that such systems aren't being corrupted-captured by bad actors.

There are other synergies with companies Elon is involved with that people seem to fail to see the synergies of, including but not limited to his effort towards colonizing Mars - of which there will be plenty of ongoing

Elon also controlling Starlink, assuming every Tesla vehicle will have capacity in future for their vehicles to be connected, they'll be able to undercut competitors - and will also act as downward pressure on competition to not overcharge; I believe Elon stated his goal is $5 billion/month from Starlink subscriptions to pay for his Mars efforts, with the first organization to get space mining operations into play - able to extract and send home refined product - has then tapped into the unlimited abundance of the universe, the profits of which reinvested fuels progress along an exponential path; once these systems are in play and self-sustainable, reaching that point by being a better offering, value-price wise, then that frees up time to focus on launching the next puzzle piece - each puzzle piece compounding with the others; his "free" time, fortunately for us, most recently leading to him somewhat impulsively - but clearly his impulses are existential crisis-importance driven - he bought Twitter to protect free speech and unveiled-unmasked the corruption and treason via releasing the Twitter Files.

Elon's arguably 20 years ahead of everyone else in regards to the holistic possibilities that his ecosystem of companies will allow for, and arguably every year there is the possibility he leapfrogs another 10 years ahead.

[dom96]

> TeslaBot that once far enough along will basically create a feedback loop that will make practically everything we currently do "free" to do?

How can this happen? This sounds like some serious hype.

What I find really funny about the TeslaBot is that it looks as capable (if not less) than Honda’s ASIMO which is a 2005 era product. What makes you think the TeslaBot won’t hit the same wall that Honda’s bot did?

[loceng]

TeslaBot will be using the same AI chip and system that Tesla's Autopilot uses to understand the vector space of the world around it.

They've already demoed teaching a robot to repeat-mimic the movements that a human dose with its arms-hands-fingers, and so training will be as simple as that. You could 1 single robot who could clean your whole house as well, say during a 10-hour period while you're out, getting every nook and cranny - and where speed isn't really an issue in that situation; other tasks like a delivery comes in, and the bot can immediately take that delivery and put the items in their proper places - whether that's fridge, freezer, cupboard, or left out on counter for cooking a meal later.

What'd it be worth to have 1 extra human worth of productivity at your command for 24/7? How much more value it creates compared to cost will depend on your circumstances of course. Having a small apartment it may not be that useful, but maybe if you have multiple properties and at once property you've cut down a tree for firewood - the bot can move the logs into a splitter and then stack them for you, etc.

Once you realize that a single robot that can switch between very different tasks in a chain of tasks is possible, the size of production required to reach the same efficiencies of economies of scale will be far lower than currently required for mass production ,e.g. where maybe the equipment needed beforehand required needing to be able to produce say at least 100,000 of something per month but now maybe only 10,000 of those units need to be created for the same margins; which makes the environment more competitive, the barriers to entry lower, derisking and distributing power-profits by allowing more decentralization, a reduction in how much large industrial complexes can capture production and sales.

The battle will be on 2-3 fronts: 1) making sure industrial complexes and bad actors don't try to try to prevent the general population from having access to these technologies, and 2) making sure bad actors don't try to capture and corrupt-takeover these systems to then weaponize them against society, and a possible 3) preventing the companies that produce these technologies, perhaps including AI, from trying to extra value from what "their" bots are capable of doing. E.g. they start trying to take a % off of every business type, depending on the added value the bots create for them, so instead of those values and gains being distributed to all of society - they try to capture and hoard as much of that value creation for themselves, reminding me of the rent-seeking behaviour of what I call the Landlord-Rental industrial complex; "leasing" the technology rather than selling it.

[pests]

I really think you are living in a sci-fi fantasy.

[loceng]

How about addressing and countering any of my specific points, ideally each one in sequence so you can't cherrypick to avoid the ones where I'm certainly correct - rather than what's essentially ad hominem as your response?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XiQkeWOFwmk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2vj0WcvH5c etc.

Perhaps you're not thinking from first principles and extrapolating from there?

[trogdor]

>TeslaBot will be using the same AI chip and system that Tesla's Autopilot uses to understand the vector space of the world around it.

If you’re talking about the AI chip in my Model S Plaid, I don’t have high hopes for this robot.

[loceng]

How many variations out driving across the US and the world do you think there are compared to a relatively static environment that a Bot can be trained in-tailored for?

[fragmede]

It's not 2005 anymore and LLMs have far surpassed Markov Chains from the 80's thanks to advancements in computing technology, so it doesn't seem unreasonable to think there's a chance they'll get past ASIMO level of performance.

[jamespo]

Other companies are catching up or surpassing on batteries, see Toyota