[satellite2]

His feelings are correctly placed though. Even though macro economists agree the current methodology is the least wrong, they also agree that the BLS series cannot explain why Americans have stopped saving and gone so deeply in debt. A slight error in BLS methodology, could explain that reality. So comparing the CPI to your own reality is clearly very rational.

[nindalf]

His feelings were correctly placed. There was a vibecession last year when consumer sentiment was lower than it had been during the 2008 recession. This was in spite of low unemployment, high growth, high wage growth, low inflation and reasonable gas prices.

The reason behind the low consumer sentiment wasn't a flaw in BLS methodology, no one seriously questions any of the stats I mentioned. Rather, it's that the effect of a couple of years of high inflation continued to weigh on consumers. 6 months of low inflation didn't reverse previous price increases, nor did they forget what prices used to be.

And yet, it's fundamental human nature to adapt to circumstances. Consumer sentiment has actually increased substantially in the last 3 months. Source: American consumers are finally cheering up (The Economist - https://archive.is/vJ7gf).

> The rate of improvement is especially striking. The 30% increase since November marks the survey’s biggest rise over any three-month period in more than three decades. The level remains glum by historical standards: about 15% below its average in the five years before the covid-19 pandemic.

In summary, the BLS' methodology to calculate economic indicators is fine. And assuming those indicators continue their trend, it's likely that consumer sentiment will continue to recover.

You also claim that

> Americans have stopped saving and gone so deeply in debt

Except this isn't true? According to surveys conducted by the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/scf23.pdf Page 30), consumer debt has gone down steadily from 2010 to 2022.

At this point, I got to ask - what is your source for facts?

[ffgjgf1]

> Americans have stopped saving

Have they? The personal savings rate is not that much lower than it was between 2000 and ~2019 on average

[trog]

It's pretty low, and I'm not sure average is the best measure here, but I can't find median to compare.

I did see this a few weeks ago and thought it was interesting - excess saving rates are dropping sharply: https://twitter.com/saxena_puru/status/1747041218004156505

There is another household debt graph that I can't find right now that is going up. I suspect the decline in savings rate is being buoyed somewhat by debt.