[aerophilic]

This is overall a good, and needed thing. While the BE-4 engines from Blue Origin are fantastic, they need the level of system maturity that is represented by ULA. Together, I see a real chance to be competitive with SpaceX long term. Yes, they have work to go before they could do reusable launch, but the combined company probably has the best chance to do so.

The more reusable launch providers the better for the industry and for human kind.

[afiori]

According to some commentators Blue Origin has more than a fighting chance to compete with SpaceX

https://youtu.be/1slJdJTzfzc?si=V7HNxAvBz0TQtMTW

[heisgone]

This video highlight the difference of culture between NASA and SpaceX, for better or worse. Kimbal Musk talks about it here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RiT0B1C7ow0

[panick21_]

Common Sense Skeptic is a ridiculous person whos literal whole identity is to trash everything related to SpaceX. When you said some commentator' I already knew who it was before I looked it up.

SpaceX could cure cancer and he would make a series of tweets about how its not an accomplishment because not every person with cancer is already cured.

For years now he has always used the worst interpretation possible and declared everything SpaceX hasn't done as impossible, and if they do it it suddendly becomes unimportant and something that others have done already done much better. And every prediction on the future is a worst case prediction.

And then he does the opposite for anything not called SpaceX.

He is also not an actual journalist with deep research or even really educated on the topic. His audiance seems to be mostly the anti-Musk people who dont usually care about space but need to say negative things.

He basically a meme, more like somebody playing character. He took the thunderfoot playbook and in order to make money on Musk hate. And yes, there are lots of only pro-Musk hype people around as well, and they are equally stupid.

[afiori]

I agree that they too often chose to be petty and have a strong negative bias. They also sometimes seems to believe that insults are arguments.

My personal opinion of Musk is quite different[0], but I do believe that they are not factually lying about the numbers and court documents.

[0] it is much closer to how it is described here https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/book-review-elon-musk

[nothercastle]

They don’t though. They are a good fit for UAL because they are already run by accountants and ex-Boeing managers. Merging 2 failed businesses into one is not a recipe for success.

[afiori]

As far as I understand SpaceX plan requires dozens of launches in close succession with never-tested in orbit refill, while Blue Origin does not.

For another view of some considerations: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OoJsPvmFixU

[appplication]

I respect the link but does anyone have a TLDR, or even a 10-minute summary?

[afiori]

SpaceX launches keep exploding and to be compliant with Nasa requirements they need to start launching about now (they need a lot of successful launches not too close together)

They proposal also requires dozens of in orbit refils and was rashly awarded in very sketchy circumstances by a NASA executive that now works for spaceX

(NASA was supposed to award 2 contracts for X billion dollars, the new budget has only ~200 million dollars so the executive calls spacex to have them ask a lower price)

Overall my impression is that SpaceX/Musk lives on hype ("Success maybe, Excitement guaranteed" cit Musk) While Blue Origin is trying to build something solid slowly (having infinite money helps...)

I do not mean this as a criticism of Musk (the original video is quite scathing). For a good representation of my personal opinion of Musk I would point to the Slate Star Codex review of his biography https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/book-review-elon-musk

[panick21_]

> was rashly awarded in very sketchy circumstances by a NASA executive that now works for spaceX

Except that it wasn't. That's just one of the CSS things that only he actually believes.

> so the executive calls spacex to have them ask a lower price

Except that not actually true.

In fact, a NASA official just recently got fired for this. If anybody had real evidence that this happened, the person responsible for selection would have been fired.

> Overall my impression is that SpaceX/Musk lives on hype

They just launched their 300 rocket and landed over 274 of them. They have many times tested the most advanced engine in the world. They supply cargo and crew transport to ISS. The are the largest rocket and sat operator in the world. This is the literal opposite of 'just hype'. SpaceX has actual revenue, something that actually makes sustainable over time.

BlueOrigin, the company CSS loves to hype because they are not SpaceX are literally just a vanity project. They have no done much yet and the re-usability of their rocket is 'hype'.

It really takes the mastermind delusional CSS to pretend the opposite is true.

[panick21_]

> BE-4 engines from Blue Origin are fantastic

Are they? Outside of being staged combustion they aren't that impressive. Their chamber-pressure is still really low. The TWR isn't that great. For a staged engine they are entry level.

Their re-usability is theoretical at this point. The early engines the delivered to ULA are not the reusable version that will later go on New Glenn.

> I see a real chance to be competitive with SpaceX long term.

'competitive' as in actually peer competition, not really.

But I guess they can 'compete' by 'Jeff Bezos is gone finance the company for many 100s of million of $ every month' for the next decade.

[dotnet00]

The reusability on BE-4 is not theoretical.

Yes, the ones flown on Vulcan do not do relighting. However, we do know of engines BO has test fired where they have tested restart capability.

https://twitter.com/blueorigin/status/1521204214084796416

[panick21_]

Many engines that are not reusable can be started multiple times. Actually having the certification that you can relaunch with the engine after you have done a reentry and landing is required.

[dotnet00]

That's a pretty convenient goalpost to move to. Raptor also is only theoretically reusable by that metric.

[Teever]

it's not goalpost shifting at all.

BO doesn't have a reusable engine until they demonstrate that their engine is reusable.