[paulpauper]

I'll repost. Imagine shorting Nvidia in July 2023 last year at $500 because it seemed overvalued or overextended. Now at $700 like nothing. It goes to show how markets are more rational than assumed , in terms of correctly pricing in future earnings.

It's not irrational exuberance, but rational. yes, a 200% rally was rational in terms of pricing in huge earnings, not a bubble. The huge rally this year was in anticipation of the blow-out earnings on Ai demand, which materialized.

The 1997-2000 period in which stock prices wildly departed from fundamentals was more of an anomaly than the norm, yet people assume that it's the norm. The late 90s and tech boom and early 2000s crash was an outlier that made people overly pessimistic in subsequent decades.

[nabla9]

Let's discuss this again in 3 years.

Nvidia is still very expensive and has 5 years of nothing revenue and earnings growth baked in.

[gmerc]

Nvidia is a 77% tax on every AI investment collected upstream. the valuation is entirely reasonable because speed matters in the landgrab period and nobody sells horses. By the time others do, the land has been grabbed.

[solumunus]

It’s really not that expensive though. The PE ratio is frankly quite normal in today’s markets. When TSLA was on its insane run its PE was an order of magnitude higher. NVDA is nowhere near bubble levels of valuation yet.

[mikestew]

Imagine shorting Nvidia in July 2023 last year at $500 because it seemed overvalued or overextended.

Oh, I don’t have to imagine:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37241696

(Granted, selling covered calls isn’t exactly shorting, and I still made bank on the whole deal. But plenty of money was left on the table.)

[TacticalCoder]

> a 200% rally

200% rally or $200 rally? Are you talking about the rally from $500 to $700?