[bryanlarsen]

Russia and Japan failed, but it's far too early to call COMAC from China a failure.

[ivan_gammel]

Russia just got a considerable motivation boost due to sanctions so the local order book for SSJ and MC families will be likely on the scale of hundreds of aircrafts. They are no longer a prestige project and Russia has the track record of building the necessary industrial capacity quickly (they ramped up military production to support war in Ukraine far beyond of what the West thought was possible in that time frame).

[bobthepanda]

I wouldn’t really call it disruptive; they’re using Russian aircraft because they have to. Anyone who has a choice in the matter will still pick the duopoly because of better dispatch reliability and fuel efficiency.

[seanmcdirmid]

C919 isn't China's first attempt. But they have a long term view of the industry and should be able to make progress even if they only satisfy some of their own domestic demand.

[genmud]

I doubt it will ever be certified by any aviation authority outside of China, which will pretty much make it the tu204 of CN.

[thriftwy]

Iran might certify it.

Russia might certify it unless having a viable domestic alternative. Moreover, it could reuse parts for its own planes.

These three taken together are already a significant chunk of the global market, each having a large domestic demand.

The problem with Tu-204 is that it wasn't a good market fit, like the current Chinese ARJ. It was certified OK and could fly abroad all right.

People said the same about Chinese cars and they're the largest exporter in 2023.

What if they have not one but ten generic passenger plane brands by 2040?