[sheepz]

These results are to be expected, if IQ is normally distributed, but we push more people into obtaining university degrees.

The value of a university degree has severely deteriorated since every white collar job essentially requires having one and it will continue getting worse.

I would assume that it's worse in the US than in Europe, because in EU it seems that education is less commercialized and you can get a degree for free if you are above average.

[roenxi]

We also no longer have as clear a signal that can be used to get high-IQ people to associate with each other then move into jobs that benefit from a very high IQ. Although on the other hand the idea that military officer intelligence is dropping (as presented in the article) is pretty concerning. If there is one place we want unusually high IQ it'd be there.

It is interesting to look at history and see how episodes of progress often require little clusters of geniuses to make them work. In the worst case, it might be harder to set that up now. Although it is hard to tell. Maybe it'd be good to normalise just testing IQ directly if that isn't already a thing.

[Amezarak]

> in EU it seems that education is less commercialized and you can get a degree for free if you are above average.

"Above-average" students (as measured by, for example, the SAT, ACT and/or GPA) are offered free university educations in many/most states in the US. It's just that average and even below average students can and do also gain admission, though obviously the completion rate is lower. College mostly only costs money in the US if you are not academically excellent and/or you elect to go to a private or out-of-state university without a scholarship.

[etothepii]

Doesn't this mean the value of a university degree has increased?

If you now have to have a degree just to make it to the 40th percentile of the earning bracket that surely means it is more required than ever, and thus worth more.

[passwordoops]

The degree is worth what it can "buy". If a generation ago the degree got you to the 20th percentile earning bracket, but today it gets you to the 40th, then that degree is "buying" you less earning power overall.

Concrete example: a generation ago you could get your foot in the door at a bank with a high school diploma as a teller. Today? You need a 4-year degree in finance. Further, if you walked into that same bank with that same 4-year degree a generation ago, you'll probably be much further up the ladder than teller.

[etothepii]

The issue surely though is the comparator.

Your analysis misses the "what can you achieve without a degree?" part of the equation.

[sheepz]

I'm not sure I agree. If more people have a university degree, then it's no longer than differentiator that it used to be. To obtain this degree, you have to take on a substantial student loan in the States from what I understand. To me it seems like a big financial risk, which might not pay off in many cases.

So, if we consider value to be the expected life time value of obtaining a degree with respect to the person's net worth and plot it over time I would assume that this value would be decreasing.

[cyrillite]

The value of a degree has increased as a product and decreased as a signal.

Some would argue that the signal was a better product than the underlying asset.

[sheepz]

Exactly, I think a university degree used to be a good proxy for IQ. But like every metric it becomes becomes bastardized in the end.

[j245]

The trends for HS and Dropout are also negative. To me it implies education across the board is getting worse (assuming IQ is a good measure of “good” education).

[hk__2]

> (assuming IQ is a good measure of “good” education)

It’s not at all.