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by consumer451 849 days ago
> A lot of effort is currently put into tracking missile launches and predicting ballistic trajectories. The goal is to give some warning if a nuclear strike is launched.

Less advanced nations such as North Korea and Pakistan have nukes. Do you think that their monitoring systems are really that good?
1 comments
gambiting 849 days ago
No, but they won't destroy the earth with what they have - untold destruction of couple other nations, with millions dead and extreme humanitarian and economic catastrophe - sure, but not extinction of life on earth.
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consumer451 848 days ago
To expand on my previous comment, one of the routes to armageddon that I have been imagining for years is something along the lines of:

1) A surprise meteor hits Pyongyang or Islamabad.

2) Their military hits their preprogrammed nuclear targets.

3) This draws larger powers into a nuclear exchange.

4) Fin.

But really, I think a bioweapon made by some kid in >2070 is probably more likely.

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gambiting 848 days ago
I don't see why or how the step 3 would happen. Even if NK nuked South Korea, and even if theoretically US responded with a nuclear strike(and that is already really stretching it), why would other superpowers respond with their own nuclear strikes? China would be super unhappy, sure, but would they attack US with nukes over destruction of North Korea? I don't see it.

I can see Pakistan and India exchanging nukes, but why would anyone join in that?

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consumer451 848 days ago
NK nukes SK, USA nukes NK, CCP needs to show that they are not weak and nukes something America-adjacent (ex: Guam). I think all bets are off at that point.

There is a contingent of generals in every nuclear capable country which is itching to use them. Historically, it has only been a rational civilian leader who has kept them in check.

There was recently a US President who was talking about nuking a hurricane.[0] Once nuclear weapons are in play, we just need one irrational reactionary leader, in the wrong place, at the wrong time, and Fin.

[0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/06/08/new-bill-w...

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consumer451 849 days ago
Yeah that's true, I just worry that things could escalate quickly once there is any exchange of nuclear weapons. It would certainly be destabilizing to a great extent.

My concern is that it would possibly snowball and draw in other actors.

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