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by roneythomas6
853 days ago
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I been following the Tesla IR presentations. The slowdown was intentional. The key issues are Tesla doesn't have diversified model lines, price wars and the misstep with 4680 batteries. Currently Tesla Shanghai has more than enough capacity for global Model 3 and Y demand. The rate of growth for these models have also slowed down from 2yrs ago. Hence why Tesla is doing aggressive price cuts, also when your doing aggressive price cuts you don't want to increase production dramatically in order to keep the margins in line. You can also see that since they have done price cuts the margins are down. At the same time in luxury market, both Model S and X sales have fallen dramatically. Which btw is made in US and exported internationally. Going to Europe, from what I understand the battery production productivity isn't anywhere near China and lastly Tesla gets federal govt credit for making batteries in US and then exported to Europe. Last part is 4680 misstep, first of all 4680 isn't anywhere close to what Tesla said at the their battery day. The production is still expensive, hence why they cancelled the sub 39k$ CT. Which btw has been the biggest mistake. Tesla could have easily sold 250k units once fully scaled up, but now they have moved to timelines to maybe in 2026. If you look at the production targets for F150 lightning, the total sales this year will be higher than CT. If you look at the sales/price bell curve of light trucks (note this is inclusive of SUVs, but Trucks make up at least half the dataset), you see a massive amount of area in the $40 -50K range, the over $70K range makes up less than 5%.
https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/styles/full_artic... In other words, Cybertruck sales numbers are going to hurt until the price is closer to announcement - A $39K Cyber Truck could (theoretically) sell millions based on category alone. a $100K truck could sell tens of thousands. |
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