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by MrMan
5154 days ago
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If ideas were worth so little, wouldn't firms tend to become more monolithic? I feel that ideas are worth more than execution now. It is cheaper and cheaper to execute, but problem solving and creativity, the things that tend to break down atomically into groups of 0-3 founders, are holding their value, or becoming relatively more valuable. I think, personally, that people like to parrot this "ideas are worthless" line but I think that it is conventional wisdom at best and flat wrong at worst. I think "no idea" rounds rely on the fact that investors know that execution risk is getting lower. But finding idea people as atoms is getting harder. If the opposite were true, individual or small clusters of founders would not be so highly valued. |
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I don't think any of your points really hold water. Even a world in which ideas are worth equally as much as execution would make no sense. I can't fly to work in a picture of a flying car; the execution for new vehicles hasn't gotten any cheaper or there would be more novelty car companies. I can't network with my friends using Diaspora. If execution were so easy, there should be ten decentralized Facebook clones with proper privacy guarantees by now, and there aren't. Spend four hours walking around, wherever you are, and you can find a dozen or more people convinced they have brilliant web ideas they just don't know how to execute. Everyone who can't program is an "idea man." Separating terrible ideas from the rest isn't hard, but without time travel it's impossible to distinguish decent ideas from extraordinary ones.
The Valley is becoming more and more insular and self-referencing. From outside, where I am, it looks to me like a mirror of the setup for the housing bubble, where the value of everything today is zero and the value of everything tomorrow is infinite, so nobody is doing anything today except trading the possibility of doing more and better things tomorrow. An idea or a founder might be worth a lot in this environment right now, but I don't think this situation is sustainable.