[slt2021]

wrong! if criminals are released the same day without bail, if they get small punishment - they keep scaling up their crime because they effectively cap their downside - so the correct math is try to maximize upside while downside is limited

[bryanlarsen]

Only wrong because I oversimplified. Being released the same day is effectively the same as not being caught at all. The research shows that the length of the punishment doesn't have a strong effect. 1 year in jail with a 100% chance of being caught and convicted is a far stronger deterrence than 10 years in jail with a 10% chance of being caught and convicted.