[potatolicious]

> "My main issue with it is that I can't see that it is needed at all."

I don't usually find myself defending defense spending... but war-related technology is something you don't know you need, until you do, by which time it's too late to procure it.

If the US is going to continue its M.O. of attacking countries whose military air presence can be counted on two hands, and consists mostly of old Soviet cast-offs, then sure, the current level of tech is more than sufficient. Overkill, even. I don't think there has been a single loss of U.S. military aircraft to enemy action since... Kosovo?

I think a main impetus of this particular project is because both Russia and China are rapidly developing their own 5th-generation fighters, and while a head-to-head with China doesn't seem entirely likely, it's certainly less farfetched than the idea was 20 years ago.

Don't take it the wrong way, I'm not defending this particular boondoggle of a project, but the need for a 5th-generation fighter is entirely understandable.

On the plus side, it doesn't look like other countries' 5th-gen fighter projects are doing much better... The Chinese project has faced delay after delay after delay, and the Russians too.

[7952]

If there was a war with China (thankfully far-fetched) why would they want to use 5th generation fighters at all? How many drones could Foxconn make in a day?

[jbooth]

Well, the thing is, drones aren't sporting. Not honorable.

No respectable air force general wants to build a career on drone acquisition.

[FelixP]

Isn't what they said about tanks and horses?

[jbooth]

That's the point.

A few years ago, in a wargame predicated around the persian gulf, this retired marine who was playing the bad guys launched a low-tech attack on carrier groups which consisted of a ton of drones and fishing boats filled with high explosives. He won.

Result? They did a "redo" with a new rule that he can't do that stuff. Because carriers are awesome and admirals want to command them.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002

[philwelch]

The good news is that, at least at the time, we still had someone like General Van Riper on our side. If you look at military history, many major wars have an opening stage where outdated doctrines are conclusively beaten and the military suddenly gets really interested in out-of-the-box thinking.

[jbooth]

I'm not convinced we're better off for it, unfortunately. Read 'The Guns of August' sometime, it's very instructive on just how many people need to die before the generals start changing tactics.

[brlewis]

Do we really need to outspend China by almost 5x? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_e...

Isn't the more likely scenario that China overtakes us economically, not militarily?

[philwelch]

The US is never going to fight China because both countries have nuclear weapons. That tends to put a damper on things. As a Chinese general reportedly put it back in the 90's, "You care a lot more about Los Angeles than you do about Taipei."

Even if you did compare the two, the US is a richer country (so it costs comparatively more to train and outfit the same number of men to the same amount) with a stronger cultural valuation of human life and a stronger cultural and political desire for short-term victories. If the Chinese got into a prolonged military conflict, not only would they be less sensitive to heavy losses, but if it took more than a couple years, no one would be worrying about reelection the way American politicians would. China is content with simply being able to win; the US needs to immediately overwhelm the enemy while suffering minimal friendly losses, or else the war will be lost politically if not militarily.

That's why we have things like the F-22 and F-35; in combat exercises small numbers of F-22's can singlehandedly wipe out entire wings of enemy aircraft without the enemy getting as much as a missile lock on the F-22. The US is in a weird spot--if [one telegenic fighter jock gets shot down](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_OGrady), it becomes national news for a week!

[potatolicious]

> "Isn't the more likely scenario that China overtakes us economically, not militarily?"

This seems almost certain at this point, all the more likely that there will be a military showdown at some point.

[viraptor]

> I don't think there has been asingle loss of U.S. military aircraft to enemy action since... Kosovo?

Not only there have been many, the enemy isn't that needed. Everyone seems perfectly capable of destroying their own machines. Actually it looks like investing in general safety would be a better option for everyone than investing in high tech radar protection.

Of course these are mostly helicopters rather than planes, but still - aircraft.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aviation_accidents_an...

[MaysonL]

How is a fifth-generation fighter, getting deployed at the end of this decade, going to possibly evade the AUVs that are going to exist then? It doesn't look like it's at all skating to where the puck is going to be...