[eru]

> It's like betting that Tesla will retain their 2022 market share in electric car market even as the market grows and everyone else gets in.

Yes. Especially once you take the Chinese electric car companies into account, that are already outselling Tesla.

[AnthonyMouse]

And even a Tesla optimist would presumably admit that maintaining a third of the EV market would be a huge win for Tesla, as the EV market becomes "the car market" going forward. Maybe that won't happen, but it's at least within the realm of possibility -- maybe some of the existing carmakers stick the transition and some of them fail, but Tesla remains the biggest one, that's not impossible.

But maintaining the 80% they had a few years ago, much less 100%? That's not optimism, it's fantasizing.

[eru]

Agreed.

Btw, I was talking about global electric car production. I don't know whether Tesla ever did 80% of global electric car sales?

[AnthonyMouse]

~80% was the US number from 2020.