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by ggm 857 days ago
I've grown used to being corrected, to the point that it's a pleasant surprise to be told I might be right.

What I notice more and more, is the "you're wrong" is used to buttress opinion masquerading as fact. If you preface "I think that.." to asserts it doesn't stop the "you're wrong" but it at least puts the discussion into the realms of conjecture about things, including facts, rather than simple asserts of facts which are often not as factual as they seem.

I also notice that argument by analogy is being over-used. Because you want to compare your large single CPU to a multi CPU doesn't mean it actually is a Bull compared to a herd of chickens. Or that cat-herding is actually much harder than it looks: you need the right kind of cream. Wait.. that analogy might not work here..

8 comments

> I also notice that argument by analogy is being over-used

This one seems especially pernicious, not because of extremely over-wrought comparisons, but because sometimes the analogy fits really well on the surface. But beyond the structural fit, it does not really help prove anything.

Too often I'll encounter an analogy wielded as if it proves the underlying point, when the reality is that it breaks down quickly if you dive into the details.

Analogies can be great to help establish new mental models, or to try out an idea with terminology that people already understand, but can be quite misleading. Better used for learning than trying to prove things.

Analogies are like a box of chocolates: overused clichés, but we hand them out and gobble them down with delight.
Analogies are decorative writings, not arguments.
They can be arguments, for example if you want to show that the other person has inconsistent views due to feelings or bias an analogy between the two inconsistent scenarios can make that clearer. I've changed my mind thanks to analogies many times.
To split hairs a bit, analogies can support arguments, but are not considered a conclusive form of evidence/argumentation in and of themselves in formal logic.

While the analogy may have been instrumental in helping change your mind, it likely did so by helping you understand the actual underlying argument.

If a human based their views solely on formal logic then they wouldn't have an inconsistent world view in the first place, so I don't see why you bring up formal logic here.

> While the analogy may have been instrumental in helping change your mind, it likely did so by helping you understand the actual underlying argument.

The world would be a much better place if that was true, but sadly people base their world view largely on feelings and those feelings often doesn't care about the underlying arguments but they can feel the analogies. That goes for you and me as well, feelings are a fundamental part of human thinking, you can't just ignore that just because formal logic says it isn't important.

For example, a person might say that they are against racism but they are pro discriminating against white people. That aligns with their feelings, but it is inconsistent and you would need something more than formal logic to make them see that inconsistency. And once they see it you didn't do it by making them understand a formal argument, you did it by changing how they feel about things, they already agreed with you that discrimination is bad they just didn't apply that consistently due to their feelings clouding their minds.

I love the orange cream. I hate the nougat.
what if you're wrong
Then I have to change my mind. But I think right now, it's not that I'm wrong to prefer orange cream, it's that I can't justify it from objective criteria except that one time I split a tooth on hard nougat which might colour my preferences
If you're not wrong, then I'm wrong, and well, that's just not possible ;^)
Analogy discussions break down when people aren't in agreement about which features are or aren't important to map across... or worse, when one or both sides haven't even considered what they are.
Someone making a point through analogy is pretty much a caricature of bad reasoning. It's a pretty common trope.
So far I haven’t seen an argument in this thread for why it’s bad reasoning when you want to show that the reasons are not what’s stated. It was just stated that it’s bad. So why is that?
I've honestly tried but I can't make out what you mean here:

> you want to show that the reasons are not what’s stated

Somebody states that they think X because of Y, and they don’t say anything else (Y can be also a group of reasons). You show an analogy where Y would cause Z too (provided the logic is solid). The other party states that they think differently about Z - the reason doesn’t matter.

In this case, either Y isn’t important at all, or there is also something else besides Y, which is not stated. In other words, X is not because of Y logically.

I don't see a problem or a point. A cause can have more then one effect, a logically sound analogy doesn't make all analogies logically sound. And producing causal arguments is inherently hard, we've spent centuries holding irrelevant things as fundamental causes of phenomena, and we still don't know fundamental causes for most observations we have produced.
Arguing by analogy is indeed problematic. You can often find rough analogy which supports the argument, but also a different analogy which disproves it.

Additionally, I think arguing by analogy is a sign that you lack real / structural arguments, real understanding.

If you can find analogies for both supporting and disproving something, then the reasons are not what’s stated. Isn’t it good to show that?
> you need the right kind of cream.

Ina a similar vein, when people talk about managing creative technical types as ‘herding cats’ I respond that this is a management style issue: You don’t herd cats, you give them something to chase.

My inner jerk likes to assert Hitchin’s razor: what can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence
That's Hitchens, of course. Here's a set of philosophical razors. [1]

There are social contexts where clarity of statement and lucidity of thought *are not* among the tools/objectives of an encounter/interaction.

But in debate or education or in any other case where clear words and ideas are indeed among the tools/objectives, avoiding them or undermining them is being a different kind of jerk.

[1] _ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philosophical_razor

I have grown accustomed to being wrong a lot as well, especially online, but it would be nice being right more often too. It's like "Am I really that far off the mark? Maybe I am. Downvotes coming." I like to think my opinions are not that bad. Yet when it comes to investing in other aspects in life ,where money is at stake or making income, I have been right more often than not. So I guess I right where it matters most, and wrong about the less important things. Or maybe I am wrong about those things because I don't invest as much mental energy into having the perfect or correct opinion compared to things where there is money at stake.
> I like to think my opinions are not that bad.

I find this sentence kind of funny. If you thought your opinions were bad wouldn’t you change them?

Of course "I think my opinions are correct" is a tautology. But what people mean when they say things like "I think I have good opinions" is that they think they were reasonably careful and thoughtful in forming their opinions... that they don't hold opinions just because they read a comment on an internet forum, for example.

IMO.

I suppose they meant that their opinions are not that controversial or against the norm. I've encountered this when I talk online about car safety, speeding, and generally about safe streets. There's a particular type of car lovers who are always waiting to swamp any dissenting opinion with downvotes, effectively drowning the discussion. I think my opinions are not that bad but for that crowd, it would make you reconsider your priors; if they're so offended by what I said, am I wrong?
The problem with opinions is not that they are good or bad, it’s how difficult they are to change. Other people who are unwilling to change “bad” opinions in the face of contradictory evidence is easily observed. If you find yourself never changing your own opinions, then you probably have a problem.
The odd thing is, and I think this is Socrates, that it's hard to tell. Having been won over by the gentle force of the better argument what were once not your ideas feel like your ideas. In fact, now they are your ideas, and feel like they always were.
> In fact, now they are your ideas, and feel like they always were.

Some people don't remember what opinions they had in the past? Remembering all the time I was wrong and learned something new or changed my mind etc is embarrassing, not sure how you could forget all that.

Like, people must remember which candidates they voted for in the past, right? So if they switch side during an election, do they really fool themselves into thinking that they always supported their new side? I don't really believe that. I'd rather believe that they lie about their past because it is embarrassing to have been wrong.

> Like, people must remember which candidates they voted for in the past, right?

I have noticed that in myself, but I have observed in some people it takes the form of “I didn’t shift, the party did”.

They aren’t completely wrong either, political parties like the people that comprise them are constantly changing. But if you aren’t careful to avoid fooling yourself it’s not too hard to do.

“Or I’m wrong, I just don’t know how. I guess when someone’s wrong, they never know how.” -The Big Short, more or less
I’d rather not ever be right. If I am that means I learned nothing, making it a waste of time.
If you've never been right about anything, you might need to reconsider your approach to learning. I think you're doing it wrong.
Perhaps you missed the communication subtext? Once I'm certain I'm right I'm not going to talk it about it ever again. What would be the point? There's nothing left to learn. I'll have moved on to new topics where I don't yet know what is right – where I'm hopefully wrong so there is something to learn.
How would you go to right but unsure to right but sure without learning anything? I don't think that being right prevents you from learning, at least you had to learn something about other arguments so you could reject those.
By being right, sometimes. But I'd rather not be.
If all you ever do is be wrong, I will promptly fire you.
An action (do) is never right or wrong, it just is.

A recount of an action may be wrong. e.g. "He did X" when in actuality he did Y.

"best-practice" is a specific, over-used term in the tech industry. People instinctively give opinions and say "well best-practice is..." to fortify it against being criticized, and then lean heavily on the fact that if you actually ask them to support that notion then they imply or accuse the questioner of being hostile.

"It's best practice" should invite the question of "according to who, in which publications? What are the circumstances of the practice, are they similar to our circumstances?"

> A weasel word, or anonymous authority, is a word and phrase aimed at creating an impression that something specific and meaningful has been said when in fact only a vague, ambiguous, or irrelevant claim has been communicated. The terms may be considered informal. Examples include the phrases "some people say", "it is thought", and "researchers believe". Using weasel words may allow one to later deny any specific meaning if the statement is challenged, because the statement was never specific in the first place. Weasel words can be a form of tergiversation and may be used in advertising, (popular) science, opinion pieces and political statements to mislead or disguise a biased view or unsubstantiated claim.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weasel_word

Edit:

Verb tergiversate (third-person singular simple present tergiversates, present participle tergiversating, simple past and past participle tergiversated)

(intransitive) To evade, to equivocate using subterfuge; to obfuscate in a deliberate manner.

(intransitive) To change sides or affiliation; to apostatize.

(intransitive, rare) To flee by turning one's back.

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/tergiversate

There's a spectrum isn't there, between weasel words that are avoidant and non-attribution which is done out of respect or kindness. News is full of passive prose; "A source claimed yesterday", because anonymous sources need protection. A barrister might say in court; "It has been said that...", not to invite libel or misidentify a witness. Or a teacher might say "It's been brought to our attention that some children..." not to embarrass a kid in front of everyone.
These are good points. Here are some links I found relating to legitimate points you have raised:

Why does The New York Times use anonymous sources? https://www.nytimes.com/article/why-new-york-times-anonymous...

A Look at Journalists' Use of Anonymous Sources https://www.voanews.com/amp/journalists-use-anonymous-source...

Society of Professional Journalists Ethics Committee Position Papers: Anonymous Sources https://www.spj.org/ethics-papers-anonymity.asp

Everything-but-the-kitchen-sink: a guide to confidential sources https://ethics.journalism.wisc.edu/2018/12/07/the-everything...

https://en.wikinews.org/wiki/Wikinews:Avoid_weasel_words

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Avoid_peacock_terms

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Manual_of_Style/Word...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puffery

Nah. Best practice usually means "assume a spherical cow". The idea is to point in the right direction because there are no one size fits all solutions for anything. It's a starting point that isn't stupid and is backed by the blood of poor bastards from the past.
But frequently, in technology, the term "best practice" is used where it's not really settled whether it's a good practice 80% percent of the time or only 20% percent of the time.

If you look at the history of industry trends over the last X decades, most of which were replaced by the next trend due to the pain that was eventually discovered, you will find many people claiming the new trend was "best practice" typically mid-way through the hype cycle and before the actual trade-offs become well known.

I mean, not writing your own encryption library is best practice.
If someone asks you 'why?' can you tell them? If not, you are using it as a weasel word. If so, then you are using it as shorthand for 'I could explain it but I don't think I need to right now'.
Or literally that’s the only information what you really have. I haven’t met a single person except universities who knew more about this topic (ie they’re rare). Even the library/interface which is used is not well understood usually, even on the surface level.
It's not clear, even, to what depth this 'best practice' applies. Writing your own crypto primitives is probably a bad idea, but what about combining them? AEAD approaches demonstrate there can be nuance even with battle-tested primitives and how they're combined or used in practice. Oh, but what about key derivation or protecting the keys in general? What good is that library's encrypt method if the DIY key secrecy/rotation/exchange is sloppy?
Same goes for “anti-pattern”.
I believe analogies should be used to communicate clearly, not advance an argument. In a good faith discussion, everyone needs to understand other perspectives - analogies are a lossy/impressionistic tool that can help people understand your argument.
On the topic of opinion masquerading as fact - if you check the dynamics there it quickly gets quite interesting. Political arguments are unusual if they involve an expert. On the big ones (economics, medical, military and technical policy) it is relatively rare to see an expert and doubly rare to find one who isn't pushing some sort of agenda. There tends to be a tiny pool of people doing a speaking circuit that turn up again and again and they're there for a reason. If you run the numbers on (informed people informing the discourse about a topic) / (people who know about topic) the numbers are a bit grim too.

And a big driver of that seems to be that either the debate isn't about facts so nobody cares, or frequently that the experts don't have a well advertised an opinion on an important subject. It really turns up in economics where finding facts is a challenge. The biggest economic miracle of our time is China's industrial policy and it isn't particularly obvious what the facts about that are.

I'm sure that there are economists who are devoting their lives to figuring out what happened in China because it is an interesting and important topic. But where the facts are being surfaced is not obvious and it isn't going to make its way through the broader public discourse.

TLDR; finding any facts in any public discussion is actually a bit of a challenge. It tends to be opinion all the way down until the trail goes cold.

I generally agree with you, but at the same time don’t think it’s always nefarious. At least personally, I’d say I definitely am more opinionated (have more of staked out positions) in areas I know something about / spent time thinking through - I’d imagine the same is true for many “experts” - it doesn’t mean they are “right” but based on their underlying conceptual frameworks[1], most of the time they’ve come to a conclusion and are going to push that.

[1] I find most policy debates I get into with friends have nothing to do with the policy at hand but rather more core political/philosophical questions underlying their thinking (e.g. do the ends justify the means or are they more individualist va collectivist)

> The biggest economic miracle of our time is China's industrial policy and it isn't particularly obvious what the facts about that are.

I'm not sure exactly what you're referring to, but I think it's pretty well understood that the growth of China is thanks to the market reforms in the 70s and 80s.

Yeah, but it's not market reforms advised by the WTO, IMF, neoclassical economists or capitalist countries. If anything, they are bending the rules as much as possible, to the point that the market aspect is a red herring. It's not just a market economy.
>The biggest economic miracle of our time is China's industrial policy and it isn't particularly obvious what the facts about that are.

Is it though? China's economic growth doesn't seem that far off (per capita) from that of South Korea or Taiwan.

My understanding is that China modelled itself on Singapore too, so I'm not expecting any radical policies. But part of the miracle is the scale of the thing, not just what happens per capita. If we go small enough, one man can go from whoever to billionaire in one generation. Getting a billion people up to a nice standard of living is harder than that.