[simne]

> no stealth in space (unless you can somehow mask heat)

I know two things.

1. We are now already using heat mask measures, even when we are very young civ in terms of Kardashev scale. We already use simple slit heat emitters in military tech (many Stealth planes have slit nozzles and for example, Leopard tanks also use slit exhaust for same reason).

2. Even we now know about possibility of laser heat, which could emit heat directly with very high focus.

In conclusion, idea is, to surround whole civ with heat mask blanket, and make all heat exhausts directly focused on directions, where now observer expected.

Second, looks like our development now is very slow, because it should be on early stages (Kardashev scale), and old civ's should know this.

And I now support theory, that we are fortunate to be far enough, so stronger civ's are not interested in spending resources to limit our development.

I even consider might be exists some preservation pact between Big civ's, to avoid touch young civ's, for some purposes like scientific, or arts. So yes, basically, I support Zoo theory.

[ben_w]

> In conclusion, idea is, to surround whole civ with heat mask blanket, and make all heat exhausts directly focused on directions, where now observer expected.

Although focussing emissions (not really a blanket) is possible, not only would some specific civilisation have to actually do that, it would have to be a common enough choice that every example we would otherwise have been able to see actually does choose to do that that — this gets increasingly difficult the more such examples there are: if a civilisation can build a Dyson swarm, what are they afraid of that they would want to hide? Even if one civilisation has a reason, everyone has to make this decision, regardless of how many (or few) "everyone" is.

"Dark forest" is a bad reason, as everyone with a Dyson swarm will have been able to know your planet existed and had life on it even when it was all single-cell species; a star winking out of existence is noteworthy, and easily noticed[0].

One Dyson swarm is enough to directly colonise a high percentage of all galaxies that aren't beyond the "reachable horizon"[1] of the universe. As soon as we can make artificial self-replicating machines (we know such machines can be made because all life is self-replicating nano-machines, we just don't know enough to do it completely from scratch yet), this would take us about 31 years[2] to make such a swarm.

[0] So easily noticed that we have, in fact, noticed it: https://vascoproject.org/vanishing-stars/

[1] the "reachable horizon" is how far stuff can get from here starting now given the universe is expanding and no FTL: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/88/Home_in_...

[2] https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DvQ7cYxhnrZtWngvW/how-to-tak...

[simne]

> this would take us about 31 years[2] to make such a swarm

They assume, when have already working general AI technology and it have some limited size (volume-mass-energy consumption).

Unfortunately, we still not have GAI and even cannot predict, how large will be first practical unit.

Must admit, looks like we very close to do it, but from history of previous great technical inventions, some things takes decades to achieve production status and was repeatedly reinvented in some years after another inventor fail.

[ben_w]

General AI is unnecessary. Bacteria do not possess this trait, and yet reproduce themselves, some in as little as 30 minutes.

It is also possible to have a large system where humans are just a component, if this were necessary. The human-machine ratio is a function of how close the automation you have is to what you need.

[simne]

> Bacteria do not possess this trait, and yet reproduce themselves

If you programmer, you should know from experience or from learn, that in complex system possible just two ways to achieve reliable execution.

1. Brute force, just test as many possible scenarios as could, 99.999% is better than 99.99%, and make script for each scenario.

2. Smart, run system when tested somewhere between 70..90% and make some sort of insurance, so when happen non-tested scenario and all failing, you will pay (compensate) for harm, and make additions.

That is. Bacteria lives in comfortable environment (mostly in liquid water drop), and spent billions of slightly modified reproductions, to make solutions for all possible scenarios. You may hear, DNA of simplest bacteria are more than Million pairs, that's because of number of scenarios it successfully survive.

Space is much less comfortable environment than liquid water, it have wide range of possible parameters, I even not sure if exists some structure, which could survive in all possible space environments, so need some adaptation mechanisms, to change structure, and best is consciousness AI, which could make smart predictions of causes and reasons, and control all these machinery. And also it will have memory, to repeat moves which helps to survive when something similar happens earlier.

[ben_w]

> If you programmer, you should know from experience or from learn, that in complex system possible just two ways to achieve reliable execution.

Irrelevant. A self-replicating system does not need to be highly reliable. Look to the past, any time over 200 years ago most families were a dozen kids because most didn't reach adulthood.

> That is. Bacteria lives in comfortable environment (mostly in liquid water drop), and spent billions of slightly modified reproductions, to make solutions for all possible scenarios. You may hear, DNA of simplest bacteria are more than Million pairs, that's because of number of scenarios it successfully survive.

False. Bacterial environments are hostile because other bacteria fight them for the same resources, including predation. Many chemicals are hazardous even in small quantities. Internal chemistry requires water in liquid form, yet there's only a narrow range of temperatures where water is liquid, and worse the chemical processes change rate significantly even within that range.

Also irrelevant, we've been using simulated evolution as a form of AI for ages already. It's not new or novel. I implemented a version of this in 30 minutes over a decade ago just to prove a point. A million bases is trivial to store, so is a billion or a trillion.

> Space is much less comfortable environment than liquid water, it have wide range of possible parameters, I even not sure if exists some structure, which could survive in all possible space environments, so need some adaptation mechanisms, to change structure, and best is consciousness AI, which could make smart predictions of causes and reasons, and control all these machinery. And also it will have memory, to repeat moves which helps to survive when something similar happens earlier.

Also false.

1. Space has far fewer parameters than water.

2. One does not need to make a single machine to survive "all possible space environments" to do this, just our solar system at 0.47-0.31 AU from the sun. We already have that, we sent probes there.

3. Consciousness is not necessary for any of that. Neither is episodic memory (though that is trivial to implement). Bacteria exist and do these things well enough with mere DNA.

[simne]

> Look to the past, any time over 200 years ago most families were a dozen kids because most didn't reach adulthood.

Do you know mathematics? Calculate, how slow will become your Dyson swarm, if for example only 1/20 will survive?

BTW, you may hear about baby-boomers, and they are exactly caused by much improved medicine, now in EU survive near 100% children.

Calculated? Ok, now calculate, how much suffer probability of overall success, because limited resources does not accept to make 20 turns to achieve 1 successful?

> 2. One does not need to make a single machine to survive "all possible space environments" to do this, just our solar system at 0.47-0.31 AU from the sun. We already have that, we sent probes there.

Well, now I see you are just overweening human, but without real knowledge. Solar system is itself have wide parameters spectrum, but is is also significantly different from other stars environments.

> Bacteria exist

Bacteria have sacrificed billions lives, to gather information, to achieve current success rate.

But must admit, I will consider idea you suggest me, about send hopeless missions, to just gather info, and I'm sure you also lazy, so I'll myself calculate success rate for each sacrifice rate.

[simne]

BTW if you really know, you could make GAI for some reasonable amount of money, or you know people, who have this knowledge, I know few very serious people, who want to invest into such thing and have money.