[nradov]

Predictability depends primarily on the time scale, plus a few other factors. I have seen existence proofs of mature, disciplined organizations using stable technology consistently hitting >90% of commitments over periods of up to 3 months. Over longer periods or when more research is needed then predictability will necessarily be lower.

While perfect predictability is impossible, many organizations have lower predictability than they could. This usually comes down to lack of discipline, which is a fixable problem (much easier than beating the stock market). Insisting on high levels of discipline eliminates the need for "hero hustle".