[phs318u]

Perhaps I didn't explain myself. What you describe re: sedentary and stressed etc, would definitely be expected to lead to an increase in deaths, however those deaths would not occur _at the time_. Many (most?) of the deaths from those types of causes would typically follow some time (possibly years) later. The cohort who would already been prone to cardiac type diseases would (I expect) mostly be sedentary or tending that way anyway, so the increase as a result of lockdowns would have been a smaller delta for them, than say for a very fit cohort (where any cardiac effects would be seen later; my guess). So while not denying this cause of excess deaths, I can't see it being the driver for a 'fast follow' surge of deaths following lockdowns. It would be (to my mind), more akin to exposure to carcinogens or radiation, where there would be a gentle rise and long-tail of excess deaths rather than most of them being in a spike/surge.

If anything, what this would imply is that we haven't seen yet the completion of excess deaths related to this era. But proving it will become increasingly more difficult as the long-tail blends into the noise.