[The_Colonel]

> To some extent this is probably to be expected; Putin has designs on EU states, particularly Poland, as a next step

Poland is a way too hard nut to crack. Attacking it is not necessary in order to advance his goals.

Baltics is just a way easier avenue to destroy NATO and EU to a smaller degree. It has a small population, unfavorable geographics and very small militaries. Even after Russian military was exposed to be far from its pre-war image, conquering Baltics is still within its capabilities. NATO has mostly just tripwire forces deployed there, but it's very far from certain whether they could really trip the wire if Russia managed to present a fait accompli. We'd see many discussions about "should our men die for these tiny faraway lands" or "we shouldn't start a nuclear war for this", but OTOH NATO failing to fulfill its primary role would very possibly mean its end.