[sytelus]

You can work backwards. For $5T investment, you need revenues of at least $500B. Nvidia revenues are currently ~18B/quarter or roughly $75B/yr. If you think 5X growth in AI in next 5 year is possible but current supply chain cannot deliver then all these totally makes sense.

To me, AI is starting to replace convectional search within early adopters already. The new search is not firing query to get references but rather converse to get answer. In my vicinity, 90% of the population has not even caught up on this progress, let alone change of muscle memory which often takes half decade.

And search is still just one of many segments. So, market has 10X growth potential from here with fair certainty. Although, as it often happens, we will overshoot expectations that causes crash followed by more regularized growth.

Fun thing is that a ton of wild predictions that created Internet bubble in 2000 actually were rather timid. Internet did changed everything and delivered way beyond expected during the bubble. It was only a matter of time.

[outside415]

Try 3 years for 5x ;)