[hnthrowaway0328]

I agree China is probably not in the best shape regarding fighting, but for a different reason: bureaucracies don't like wars. They are hugely unpredictive, and more importantly, wars bring generals into the front row, so if you are not a general you are going to stand back, lose power and receive order from somewhere.

For example, usually the party provincial secretary (most powerful man in that province) concurrently serves as the first secretary of the provincial military region party committee, but he doesn't have real power in the military. When war comes, it's the group of people who are more experienced with military (the generals) going to make the call, and everyone else is not going to be happy.

Think Politburo and the Central Military Commission. When war comes it's the CMC who is going to make the call. Some people take seats in both but some not. They all stand in the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party -- but power distribution is going to shift when things move.

That's why I think the biggest resistance comes from the party itself, not depression. Depression, historically, usually leads to wars, not from them.