What people arguing against your points don’t understand is that globalism is coming to an end. It started when China initiated decoupling and started their ill advised wolf warrior diplomacy.
A lot of the "it's time we moved away from China" corporations are moving their manufacturing from the authoritarian communist country of China to... the authoritarian communist country of Vietnam. Vietnam has loose regulations due to being undeveloped and seeking business just like China was 30 years ago. In a decade MBAs will be amazed when they find out Vietnam exerts total absolute control of their businesses just like China does.
Manufacturing hubs are shifting hands, but globalism isn't ending. Companies can still get away with paying $10 a day or less to people in some countries and they're never giving that up.
True but Vietnam hates China, so that will work. Also, the Vietnamese can pretend to be a democratic country in 10 years; so that they look cute in the eyes of your average American. You know, kinda like what the Korean or Taiwanese did.
Unlike China, I don't see how Vietnam would ever be some kind of threat to world peace and order or western powers in general. It's not that large, it doesn't have an ongoing war with an important high-tech trading partner, it doesn't seem to have much interest in being a superpower, etc.
Companies don't care about threats to world peace. They cared that China locked down cities, their factories, and exports. If world peace were their concern, there are a lot of countries they'd refuse to do business with. They usually only stamp their feet and whine when countries do things that affect their profit margins, like push for increased wages, environmental regulations, and locking up a factory to prevent disease spread.
One thing to keep in mind: a few years ago, South Korea with North Korea to allow corporations to do manufacturing in North Korea. [1] The result: mega corporations like Korea's Hyundai and Japan's Family Mart flooded in to take advantage of cheap (probably even slave) labor. It closed not because companies felt morally wrong about it--it closed because the governments forced it to close.
Nah, the brakes have definitely been thrown on over the last few years. The US has had back-and-forth with China and Canada, e.g. the huge tariff on that Embraer plane, export restrictions on computer chips, and I think the steel tariff dispute is still simmering away. The UK has pulled out of the EFTA and that's affected supply chains a lot. China has cut off the workarounds that allowed offshore ownership of stock in their companies, a whole lot of what was tolerated in Hong Kong is not being tolerated any more. And that's before you get into the Russia situation - cutting off SWIFT is pretty much unprecedented, and the oil price cap stuff is also new. Global trade is very much less free than a decade or two ago, and that trend is accelerating.
Russia is not fully cut from western financial system. Even few EU banks are there.
Price cap is poorly enforced. All economic sanctions applied to Russia are poorly enforced thanks to globalization and lack of political will of western countries.
Sanctions are severe on paper, but in real life just adds some extra friction.
Unfortunately we are living in times when there are only weak populists in the government.
I wish the next is president will be someone like Reagan, but it is impossible.
The US can no longer afford to be world police with its navy.
Russia is now outside of the US economic system, while relations with China continue to deteriorate. It will deteriorate further once China attacks Taiwan.
US China relations continue to deteriorate because of China’s aggression in the South China Sea and continued decoupling aka de-risking.
Russia is cut off from the developed Western economy. Some NATO commanders are also warning that Russia will not stop at Ukraine.
Even if Russia and China weren’t on a war path, the US simply cannot continue to subsidize global defense of trade via our navy. Currently, only the UK and Japan have a sizable fleet of long range ships, but they still don’t compare to the US navy.
Yes, globalism is still here, but the trend is that it will be on a major decline in the coming years. Destabilizing geopolitics will only hasten it.
Common misconception but the US does not pay for its navy by itself. That is done by the world using a ever overprinted currency for reserve and trade. The US can print aka lend that money to set a navy to work. The world pays for its police.
Some hicks in the rust belt contribute and receive very little benefits from a fee trade empires existence and are thus usually left to there own devices by both parties.
> Common misconception but the US does not pay for its navy by itself. That is done by the world using a ever overprinted currency for reserve and trade. The US can print aka lend that money to set a navy to work. The world pays for its police.
Common misconception that the US controls the world dollar. The Eurodollar has been where the world's trade has been pegged for half a century, the US simply benefits from a massive economy and it being their native currency.
This is like saying the US controls the world through ubiquity of "English" as a business language. No, but they definitely benefit from it. You can choose to speak any other language, or use any other reserve currency that you like.
Russia is cut off only on paper. In real life they do trade very well.
And yes, they will never stop because they have an empire mentality. Make Russian empire great again! Russian are ready to kill anyone and die for promise to get 2000$ per month from their government.
Being able to get supplies from black markets at a high markup isn’t the same as being connected to the markets. Russia also doesn’t want yuan or rupees, and most of their new customers haven’t even paid them yet.
Russia is not even cut off from trade with USA. There are even messages that USA is buying some amount of Russian oil every month.
From the other hand, Russians can buy anything western they want, just with more friction and higher price. Even dual-purpose western components for army are freely available for them.
They are cut off from the American system. The products will leak from both ways unless you impose a strict naval blockade. For some premium, many countries will dodge the sanctions.
Imagine the anti liberal backlash that will come if the first gi dies from forces armed up by neoliberale trading. They will ride the ex-elites out of town on a rail, if they are lucky..
Manufacturing hubs are shifting hands, but globalism isn't ending. Companies can still get away with paying $10 a day or less to people in some countries and they're never giving that up.