[X6S1x6Okd1st]

But you also need consider that the Chinese demographics are basically only going to get worse from here. Their dependeny ratio is going to get really bad, like it could be 1.5 retirement age people per 1 working age person.

Are they gonna try and fight a war while the average soldier has more then one aging parent back on the mainland?

Who would do the domestic production to support the effort?

If China ever wants to do it they need to do it in the next couple decades

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/12/05/key-facts...

[hnthrowaway0328]

I actually don't think they want a war. They are preparing for a war, that's for sure, but to start one, with NATO? That's not a good idea. Time is China's friend at least for the next decade as you mentioned.

[foobarian]

Where is NATO in this picture? There is no alliance trigger with a Taiwan invasion.

[JumpCrisscross]

> Where is NATO in this picture?

Nowhere. The relevant alliances are AUKUS [1] and the Quad [2].

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AUKUS

[2] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quadrilateral_Security_Dialo...

[bluGill]

There isn't in the case of Ukraine either, but NATO has mostly stepped up anyway. Sure we are not putting troops on the ground (yet???) but NATO has provided a lot of support.

Countries like South Korea, Japan, Philippians, and Australia are likely to get scared if China does too much and send some form of help.