[ztcfegzgf]

sorry but this is not realistic. i looked at the [2] document and it's just a dream.

it's written in the style of "currently EU consumes this much energy, we project this to grow to that much until 2030/2040, we currently produce this much energy from renewables, so we need to multiply the amount of renewables with the correct number".

completely ignores the largest problem with solar/wind, storage. it just says that we should build enough storage. that's easy to say. i don't know of any country on this planet that made it work with purely solar/wind (please just tell me which one does, bonus point for one with a similar climate to europe), so it means we need to literally develop the technology (pls note, we do not even know what that technology will be) and then deploy it... in 6 years. that's completely unreal.

also, they recommend that we let the nuclear power generation go to zero, arguing for example, that nuclear-fuel needs to be imported into europe, but seems to be totally fine with importing in anything else (rare earth minerals etc.)

[toomuchtodo]

You are looking at individual countries. Europe has a transmission network, as well as battery storage, pumped storage, hydro generation, wind, solar and some nuclear. You keep adding renewables and storage, and keep retiring fossil generators. Europe has enough wind potential to power the entire world, for example. It's not impossible, it's math.

https://app.electricitymaps.com/map?wind=false&solar=false

https://www.energy-storage.news/europe-reached-4-5gw-of-batt...

[zihotki]

That doesn't help when you have a big storm, sunless/windless winter or any other combination of factors covering big area. Plus fragility of the supply, limitations of power lines and network, etc. As soon as you add more real life factors it doesn't look that promising. To have a potential doesn't imply to have a feasibility.

I have nothing agains further improving the network and load-balancing it smarter, but it's just in my interest to have some local duplication of energy generation. Or with my heatpump being out of service I may freeze or will have to buy a generator.

[toomuchtodo]

I don't disagree, fossil gas generators will be the last fossil generators to go (gas peakers and oil are already uneconomical compared to battery storage [1] [2] [3]). We're just arguing time horizon and deployment trajectories [4]. Certainly, don't tear down efficient fossil gas generators until they're no longer needed, but keep building renewables, storage, and transmission like our lives depend on it, because they do.

[1] https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/04/12/battery-storage-syste...

[2] https://assets.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/documents/resources...

[3] https://www.lazard.com/media/2ozoovyg/lazards-lcoeplus-april...

[4] https://electrek.co/2023/11/20/world-may-be-on-track-for-tri...

[toomuchtodo]

Citation: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-02-07/the-ga... | https://archive.today/9YQIP ("Bloomberg Opinion: Big Gas Needs to Be a Backup; Instead of a Bridge, Utilities should emphasize their role of keeping the lights on when renewables can’t and pivot away from a reliance on increasing volumes.")

[bryanlarsen]

There has never been a one-hour window over the last 30 years where it hasn't been sunny or windy somewhere in Europe.

Obviously having all of Europe's electricity being generated on a single corner of Spain isn't feasible. But nobody is talking about 100% wind & solar. Hydro, storage, geothermal & nuclear can all add diversity and reliability. This can be modelled. We cannot get to 100% reliability but nothing can; local distribution SPOF bottlenecks limit reliability 99.99% regardless. And 99.99% is possible.