[nostromo]

No conspiracy thinking required. Biden has a non-zero chance of dying before the election and Harris is very unpopular. It's not unthinkable that should Biden not be able to run, someone like Obama would step in at the last minute.

Would I pay 20:1 odds for that scenario? Hell no. But I might buy at 100:1 or greater.

[Spivak]

I'm sorry, what? The line of presidential succession has been long established, it's in the constitution, and Kamala Harris is next in line. And then a lot of people who aren't Obama.

[pessimizer]

Elections have nothing to do with presidential succession. It will be a party decision, Harris is a guaranteed loss, and M. Obama is a possible win.

[laidoffamazon]

This is, again, a conspiratorial mindset considering Michelle Obama has repeatedly said she would never run and Kamala Harris would never be replaced.

[nostromo]

Politicians always say that. Obama himself denied wanting to run for president repeatedly right up until he announced his run for president.

[laidoffamazon]

Notably Barack Obama was an actual politician in February 2007, unlike Michelle Obama. It's a nonsensical comparison.

[function_seven]

Lines of succession are a separate thing from winners of elections. If Biden were to die before election day, that doesn't mean Harris would be on the ticket as the presidential nominee. I'd wager against that for sure.

So who would be tapped to fill in for the recently-deceased candidate? Could be Harris, or Obama, or a dozen other hopefuls.

[simonw]

That's a different issue. Presidental succession says who replaces Biden if he dies in office, but the question here is who would stand as the Democratic candidate for the 2024 election if he died.

Harris would be likely, but maybe not a 100% certainty.

[laidoffamazon]

The edge cases are people like Pritzker or Newsom, not Michelle Obama who has repeatedly said she would never run for office.

[laidoffamazon]

In the minds of conservatives and some leftists, the concept that Kamala being unpopular is so ingrained that they cannot believe that she would be the nominee no matter what the circumstances. In reality she's not much more unpopular than her President and would likely see a massive approval bump if the worst happens to the current POTUS.

Even without that, she's the odds-on favorite to be the nominee in 2028 by incumbency alone. Basically anyone that follows politics understands this, but the silly conspiracies are based on motivated reasoning.