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by andersrs 871 days ago
3Blue1Brown explains it well. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lG4VkPoG3ko

If the population who do _not_ actually have serious cancer is orders of magnitudes larger than those who do then there will be far more people in the false positive group than the true positive group and thus the vast majority of operations will be unnecessary.
2 comments
pintxo 871 days ago
Good one.

The key here is how we manage the positive ones. And this is where the current system fails. We have yet to find a good way to manage them without doing unnecessary treatments causing more harm than good.

But instead of fixing this problem, we opted to stop screening. Which, for me, sounds stupid. But it sure is easier to do.

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hef19898 871 days ago
With all due respect to 3Blue1Brown, there are limits to wjat you can explain with statistics. Medicine applied on the individual pevel is one of those cases, because its purpose is to optimize the outcome for the individual.

A pandemic is different, there the goal is to optimize the outcome for the population.

Applying the latter to the former is at the very least cynical. The opposite is what got us anti-mask and anti-vaxxers.

Also, especially with cancer, people tend to be so affraid of the diagnosis, they look for excuses to not be examined. As if cancer onpy pops up when it is found or something. Which is stupid, if ypu have cancer you want to know as early as possible.

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Paul-Craft 871 days ago
> Applying the latter to the former is at the very least cynical. The opposite is what got us anti-mask and anti-vaxxers.

I have no idea where you're going here. Wearing masks and getting vaccinated benefit both the individual and the population. (That actually contributed to it being politicized -- your choices affect my chances of getting a nasty disease).

At the individual level, you wear a mask when appropriate and get vaccinated, then you're less likely to get the disease and it's likely to be less severe if you do. Likewise, the population benefits from less disease spread, and less strain on the healthcare system as many of these cases become outpatient "take some Paxlovid" type deals.

Where is there any sort of basis for anti-mask and anti-vax theology here?

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