[steveplace]

That risk you speak of may not be discounted in the price, but rather in the implied volatility. You'll see that after major earnings reports/announcements there is an IV crush on the options board.

You can game this by looking at historical IV for pre-earnings and see if the current is over/under. You can then sell straddles or strangles if you think the price will stay in that area.

It's even better for GOOG because they always release earnings right before options expiration, so there's a ton of voodoo going on in their price.