[CamperBob2]

IMO the risk is not that Einsteins (and Carmacks) won't have the educational opportunities they need. That may have been a showstopper in the past but it certainly isn't today, not with the resources we have now from YouTube to ChatGPT.

And the world is full of parents who are neglectful with no excuse at all. I don't think early fatherhood would stop an Einstein.

Instead, the risk is that talented people will die of starvation, disease, or warfare before they have the chance to become who they are. Or that their career will be cut short by similar circumstances. See Ramanujan, or the even more-tragic but lesser-known https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleg_Losev .

That's where the luck factor really comes into play... the luck to be born someplace peaceful. The luck to be born male, if you have to be born into a culture driven by social or religious biases. The luck to receive the nutrition (never mind the Apples) you need as a growing child. The luck that just plain keeps other people the fuck out of your way.

And that's what we have to work on as a civilization. It's a bigger problem than simply arguing over how public education should work, or whether scientist X or inventor Y would have benefited from policy Z.