[tptacek]

"What the Houthis and these activist groups in America do after they’ve succeeded in stopping the genocide" is assertion that these groups are acting in concert. They are not, nor do they share the same goal. If you wanted to say they were tactically superficially similar, I'd shoot that down too (activists in Tacoma aren't blowing things up and trying to kill crew) but I wouldn't find the argument offensive, just deeply wrong.

[runarberg]

Sorry, that’s not what I meant. There was an implied respectively there. But they do have a common stated goal of an immediate ceasefire. As is the stated goal of South Africa and supportive nations the very same at the ICJ. So same goal via different means.

As for effectiveness, we do know that protests do work if they are disruptive enough. But we also know that rulings by the ICJ have a tendency to be ignored if a powerful enough nation disagrees with them. Both the cities of San Francisco, Oakland and Seattle are among the nations largest cities who are calling for ceasefire. Barbara Lee and Pramila Jayapal are among very few members of congress calling for ceasefire.

We will see in the days after Friday whether the actions at the ICJ were enough, and that actions against international shipping were indeed unnecessary. However, I’m gonna remain pessimistic about that.

[tptacek]

The "actions against international shipping" (objectively: indiscriminate and murderous piracy) have done nothing to deter the IDF, but have harmed people throughout the region that depend on the navigability of the Red Sea and supply chains. I object to the claim that the ICJ effort is somehow connected to what Iran and Ansar Allah are doing.

There's a further irony to appealing jointly to the ICJ, an instrument of international law, and piracy, opposition to which is the literal original basis for all international law.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mare_Liberum

[runarberg]

I wasn’t aware of the irony, but yeah, its there, but it is nothing more than a curiosity. But these are indeed separate groups aiming for the same thing, a ceasefire, via different means. That is the only link I’ve claimed.

You seem to take issue with the methods the Houthis are employing, but I would like to point out that blockading international shipping is also a method which the Israelis use against Gaza. This blockade by Israel has manifested it self in direct assaults on cargo vessels and murders of their crew members (see e.g. Gaza Flotilla Raid[1]).

I think the targets of the Houthis is not the IDF directly, but rather the international community, particularly nations which are aiding and enabling Israel in the genocide, such as the USA. That the tactic here is to be disruptive enough that it won’t be worth it for these nations to support Israel in its crimes any longer. However, I’m not a member of the Houthies, so I can be wrong about that.

1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_flotilla_raid

[tptacek]

A naval blockade is an act of war. A naval blockade in international shipping lanes is an act of war against every country that uses those seas! There is no rhetoric that rescues the Houthis from the irony of your argument.

I recommend that you do some additional reading about the Houthis. Rasha Al Aqueedi and Nadwa Dawsari are good starting points. I think you're unlikely to find a credible reported account of Ansar Allah that is sympathetic to them.

[runarberg]

> A naval blockade is an act of war. A naval blockade in international shipping lanes is an act of war against every country that uses those seas!

I don’t dispute this. However by that logic, Israel has been at war with Gaza (and everyone that trades with Gaza, including Turkey) since 2008. And if we follow that logic further—which we shouldn’t—we can explain Oct. 7 as a particularly horrendous war-crime in a war full of war crimes committed by both sides, but again, we shouldn’t do that.

I also don’t dispute the irony. It most definitely is there, I just find it unimportant. On a global issue, you will always find very different groups with vastly different goals, and it just so happens that one of their goals intersect. They don’t need to be united behind that goal (and they seldomly are) but what you will see is every group has most likely very different means towards that goal.

These actions may even be counterproductive. You may believe that this is the case for the Houthi actions, I don’t, and for that we’re just going to have to disagree.

Finally I would like to note, I’m not sympathetic to the Houthies as a group, merely their stated goal of a ceasefire. I’m also of the believe that we are going to have to be way more disruptive if we are to achieve ceasefire. I believe—and I may be proven wrong about this—that the ICJ case is not gonna be enough, as any enforcement may—and I believe it will—simply be blocked by the USA.

Expect to see much more disruptive actions from all groups if (when?) the international community fails to enforce the orders from the ICJ.

[tptacek]

Israel occupies Gaza. If you're looking for me to defend Israel with respect to Gaza and the West Bank, you're barking up the wrong tree. But international law doesn't have much to say about the situation, because Israel won both territories about as "fairly and squarely" as you can say exists under international law, way back in 1967 --- they even offered Gaza back to Egypt, which refused, for cynical reasons.

Further: your logic doesn't cohere. Were Israel to blockade international shipping lanes, countries would declare war against them, as Israel did when Egypt blockaded the Tiran Straits. The discussion wouldn't be "can Israel do this"; it would be "has Israel provoked a war with another seafaring country", the way Ansar Allah has.

What you can't do is supply an analysis like "since Israel blockaded Gaza, Ansar Allah can blockade the Red Sea". Well, they can do that, but then the UK and the US will be applauded by the Security Council when they aerosolize Ansar Allah with cruise missiles.

You have repeatedly defended the actions of Ansar Allah in this discussion, most importantly by accepting their explanations at face value despite a (recent!) historic context that gives the lie to all of them, pretty bluntly and objectively. I understand you'd rather just focus on making a case against Israel, and I get why, but the reason you're conversing with me on this thread and not a supporter of Israel is that I'm not prepared to let sail by the idea that the Houthis are a legitimate actor. They are precisely the opposite of that.