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by atourgates 877 days ago
I found this to be a fascinating article, and the problem is illustrative of problems in our society on a number of levels.

The biggest problem is of course, societal. One anecdote from an anti-theft taskforce in the article showed that less than 5% of the thefts were prepretrated by organized groups, and the other 95% were from "passers-by or unhoused people living near the tracks in R.V.s or makeshift structures".

People on the margins of society, who see an opportunity to make some money.

Ideally, we'd fix the problem of unhoused people on the margins of society and we'd eliminate the vast majority of thefts like this.

But of course, that's a much harder problem to solve.

Much easier, then, to respond with bigger locks, and more security cameras, and GPS trackers and more security guards in vulnerable hotspots.

While those measures might work (to an extent) to solve the immediate problem, they don't work to make the society that I'd like to live in. I'd much rather live in a more equitable society that works to eliminate homelessness, and the conditions that lead to this type of theft, then one that just prevents it with punatitive measures and thorough enforcement.

5 comments

> Ideally, we'd fix the problem of unhoused people on the margins of society and we'd eliminate the vast majority of thefts like this.

I don't see any evidence of this.

The article did point out that only 5% of the arrests were organized criminals, but I would expect the organized ones to do more than their fair share of total thefts. I'd also expect them to get arrested less often than their amateur counterparts.

But more importantly, your proposal assumes that eliminating poverty would eliminate crime. That makes intuitive sense, but I don't think it's true. I've heard that many of the package thieves in my neighborhood are middle class people who just steal opportunistically.

> I don't see any evidence of this.

> I've heard that [...]

This kinda sums the whole discussion really. We have an article that doesn't really go deep into the issue, and let's everyone come up with their own "all my homies say that XXXX" version of the root causes.

The best answer is probably that it's complicated, poverty plays a role, but so do many other critical factors (e.g. a decent summary of the studies in the field: https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PA00XGJN.pdf )

> This kinda sums the whole discussion really. We have an article that doesn't really go deep into the issue, and let's everyone come up with their own "all my homies say that XXXX" version of the root causes.

It's definitely anecdotal. But I think it justifies my skepticism of the claim that eliminating poverty would "eliminate the vast majority of thefts..." The parent comment didn't provide any data to support that thesis, and it doesn't align with my experiences.

> The best answer is probably that it's complicated, poverty plays a role, but so do many other critical factors

Yes, exactly. But that's what I'm arguing: poverty isn't the only factor in property crime. And while it's nice to imagine a world in which poverty doesn't exist, I think that cultural factor combined with inequality and opportunism will cause theft to remain.

I mean I don't steal because I don't have to, not because of some moral drive to care one iota about the profits of corporations. No one is asking poverty reduction to eliminate crime but it's on the theory that for most people above a certain life comfort you have more to lose than gain by petty theft and you don't need to bother.

I think "give people something to lose" is an underused and underrated crime deterrent.

Most people already have something to lose. Giving them the fear of losing it has more to do with enforcement.
Not necessarily. There are places where crime is low and so is police presence, like Taipei or Tokyo. It's part of culture which is actually adhered to by most.
What are you talking about? There's a staffed police box in every neighbourhood in Tokyo, and even more police in the "dangerous" areas.
I have hardly ever seen police patrolling. Traffic cops at intersections, but beat cops or cops at malls, train stations, etc.. seem rare.
It would reduce crime, not eliminate it. Important distinction.
if we tangibly know how to reduce it, we can eliminate it
It is genuinely ludicrous to believe that you can outright eliminate criminality just because you can reduce criminality. Am I misunderstanding something?
Someone else said it was 5% of arrests, not thefts. If so, I would expect organized groups to be less likely to get caught, and to steal much more in each robbery.
Yep, just have a mole at the rail yard to report where the sweetest things are => come quick, take exactly you need, get out.
Folks living in a tent aren’t typically the ones getting caught with a warehouse and 18m or 30M in stolen goods, which has happened in LA and Chicago respectively. These are organized crime rings running fencing operations at heart.

The same thing is happening in agriculture, though it’s really under reported.

A more equitable society is a society in which people in precarious financial and social situations are free to work to improve their lot, without fear that lawbreakers will destroy all they have built. Enforcing the law and holding criminals accountable is a prerequisite to creating economic and social opportunity. El Salvador's recent rebirth is a perfect demonstration of this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1KU-Tkh4yoQ
The problem is that your theory assumes that people are always at their 100% and thus can work to improve their lot. That is simply not true,if you hold that view, you are honestly just wrong and I can't do anything about it.
Can you explain what you mean by:

> your theory assumes that people are always at their 100% and thus can work to improve their lot

It's not obvious to me at all that a person needs to be at "100%" to improve their lot (and avoid criminality). I would never get out of bed if that was the case.

It's not just a theory, it's an empirical observation—as El Salvador demonstrates.
I wodner if that is possible. It seems sort of a boil-the-ocean technique though.

Is what you want really to make the cargo less valuable in comparison to the wealth of the people near its route?

I suspect that even with full employment, there will still be theft.

I think even in really decent societies like japan, there are still homeless people, and also the yakuza.

Yes, people don't understand that the increase in homelessness will certainly also increase dramatically the amount of theft. Middle class people with jobs and homes don't want to jeopardize their lifestyle by committing petty theft. People at the margins of society, especially homeless, don't have much more to lose, so this kind of behavior becomes the norm.