[bluedino]

> I have seen no evidence that all 2-point conversions aren't equally likely to succeed

Pass plays are less likely to convert than run plays. The conversion rates aren't even equal between teams.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/two-point-conversion-p...

[aidenn0]

Surely implicit in the statement is "all 2-point conversions in the 4th quarter by the same team" since we are comparing 3 possible 2-point conversions in the 4th quarter by the same team. (2pt conversion when down by 8, 2pt conversion when down by 2, 2pt conversion when down by 1).

[cp9]

> The conversion rates aren't even equal between teams

yes but in this instance we are considering the same team